The $100-a-barrel oil that Goldman Sachs Group said would prevail by 2009 may be only a few months away.Jeffrey Currie, a London-based commodity analyst at the largest brokerage firm, said that $95 crude was quite likely this year unless OPEC unexpectedly increased production and that declining inventories were raising the chances for $100 oil.

This is OPEC's official statistical bulletin. Table 9 is the most interesting, in that during the mid 1980s all the OPEC countries reserves suddenly shot up. Table 7 is also interesting, because it bellies the common conception that OPEC countries are getting absurdly wealthy on oil profits.

As oil prices remain volatile the markets do their best to forecast future prices. Unfortunately this is not an easy task. While it may appear extraordinary to outsiders one of the main problems in the oil market is the reliability of basic statistics.

Analysts at the Oil Drum have declared that Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, the largest field in the world, has reached its peak. They claim that Saudi oil production is down 8% from 2005, a signal that indicates Ghawar is empty.