Volume 9, Number 3
02/23/2006
Edited by John L. Petersen
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org

See past issues in the Archives

In This Issue:

Future Facts - from Think Links
Think Links - The Future in the News…Today
A Final Quote

At The Arlington Institute, we believe that to understand the future, you need to have an open mind and cast a very wide net. To that end, FUTUREdition explores a cross-disciplinary palette of issues, from the frontiers of science and technology to major developments in mass media, geopolitics, the environment, and social perspectives.

FUTURE FACTS - FROM THINK LINKS
DID YOU KNOW THAT...

• Astronomers say that one millisecond before a giant star dies in a spectacular explosion, it hums a note around middle C.
• Using videogames to train today's U.S. military recruits, who grew up with Xboxes and Playstations, is necessary and natural says a new report.
• An astonishing "lost world" of previously unknown and rare animals and plants high in the mountain rainforests of New Guinea has been uncovered.
• A new plastic solar cell can turn the sun's power into electrical energy, even on a cloudy day.
• A space elevator cable has been built stretching a mile into the sky, enabling robots to scramble up and down the line.

THINK LINKS – THE FUTURE IN THE NEWS...TODAY

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

Anti-Cartoon Protests Go Online
Web Suicide Pacts Surge in Japan
Poll Finds 30% Use Net Just for Fun

Anti-Cartoon Protests Go Online -- (BBC -- February 9, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4692518.stm
Almost 1,000 Danish websites have been defaced by Islamic hackers protesting controversial cartoons mocking the Prophet Muhammad. The attacks typically replace home pages with pro-Islam messages and condemn the publication of the images. Some hackers left moderate messages but many called for a violent response to the cartoons' publication.

Web Suicide Pacts Surge in Japan -- (BBC -- February 9, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4695864.stm
The number of Japanese who killed themselves in suicide pacts made over the internet rose sharply last year. Police said 91 people died in the pacts in 2005, compared to 55 in 2004 and 34 in 2003, when the records started. Alarm at the rise has led to increased vigilance by internet service providers, who now report suspected suicide pacts to the authorities.

Poll Finds 30% Use Net Just for Fun -- (CNET -- February 16, 2006)
http://news.com.com/Poll+finds+30+percent+use+Net+just+for+fun/2100-1025_3-6040301.html
Nearly one-third of American Internet users go online just for fun rather than to check e-mail, read news or use a search engine, a sharp increase from a year ago, according to a new survey. One senior researcher stated "this tells us the internet is another place where people increasingly go to while away their time or just to hang out".

NEW REALITIES

Stars Hum Themselves to Death
Andromeda's Satellite Galaxies All Lined Up
Einstein's Theory Improved?
Milky Way Accused of Million-Star Theft
Newly Forming Solar System Has Planets Running Backwards
How Babies Do Math at 7 Months
Space-Elevator Tether Climbs a Mile High

Stars Hum Themselves to Death -- (ABC -- February 10, 2006)
http://abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s1566271.htm
Milliseconds before a giant star dies in a spectacular explosion, it hums a note around 'middle C', astronomers say. The discovery could prove to be the "missing link" in understanding what makes stars explode. Until now scientists had assumed that the spectacular explosion in a star's dying moments was due to the star's outer shell bouncing back off the core, But none of the models of exploding supernovae to date had supported this theory.

Andromeda's Satellite Galaxies All Lined Up -- (Space -- January 23, 2006)
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060123_andromeda_plane.html
An unusually high number of galaxies are aligned along a single plane running through the center of the giant Andromeda galaxy. Scientists don't have a theory to explain why. Galactic cannibalism or dark matter may be responsible, researchers say. The Andromeda galaxy is located at a distance of 2.5 million light-years away and is the nearest spiral galaxy to the Milky Way.

Einstein's Theory Improved? -- (PPARC -- February 13, 2006)
http://www.pparc.ac.uk/Nw/EinsteinTheory.asp
A Chinese astronomer has fine-tuned Einstein's groundbreaking theory of gravity, creating a 'simple' theory which could solve a dark mystery that has baffled astrophysicists for three-quarters of a century. The new law for gravity aims to prove whether Einstein's theory was in fact correct and whether the astronomical mystery of Dark Matter actually exists.

Milky Way Accused of Million-Star Theft -- (New Scientist Space -- February 9, 2006)
http://www.newscientistspace.com/article.ns?id=dn8696
The Milky Way appears to have stolen about a million low-mass stars from a dense "globular cluster" in the constellation Ophiuchus, astronomers have discovered. The finding suggests this cluster ventures closer to our galaxy's central bulge than previously thought, allowing the bulge's gravity to strip away many low-mass stars, while leaving the cluster's more massive stars behind.

Newly Forming Solar System Has Planets Running Backwards -- (NASA -- February 13, 2006)
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/opposite_orbit.html
Call it the biggest beltway ever seen. Astronomers have discovered a newly forming solar system with the inner part orbiting in one direction and the outer part orbiting the other way. Our solar system is a one-way boulevard. All the planets, from Mercury out to Pluto and even the newly discovered objects beyond, revolve around the Sun in the same direction. This is because the Sun and planets formed from the same massive, rotating cloud of dust and gas. The motion of that cloud set the motion of the planets. The fact that a solar system can have planets running in opposite directions is a shocker.

How Babies Do Math at 7 Months -- (BBC -- February 15, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4713714.stm
Babies have a rudimentary grasp of math long before they can walk or talk, according to new research. By the age of seven months infants have an abstract sense of numbers and are able to match the number of voices they hear with the number of faces they see.

Space-Elevator Tether Climbs a Mile High -- (New Scientist -- February 15, 2006)
http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn8725.html
A slim cable for a space elevator has been built stretching a mile into the sky, enabling robots to scrabble some way up and down the line. LiftPort Group, a private US company on a quest to build a space elevator by April 2018, stretched the strong carbon ribbon 1 mile into the sky from the Arizona desert outside Phoenix in January tests.

GENTICS/HEALTH TECHNOLOGY

'Pharmed' Goats Seek Drug License
When DNA Turns on Itself
Cancer Deaths Fall for First Time
Gasping Cells Theory of Cot Death
Lab-Made Human Collagen Promising

'Pharmed' Goats Seek Drug License -- (BBC -- February 22, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4740230.stm
Imagine you could get life-saving medicines from milking a common farmyard animal. That idea moves a step closer to becoming a reality this week, as the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) considers the final stages of an application to license a natural human protein extracted from the milk of goats. If the EMEA says "yes", Atryn will become the world's first medicine to be produced from a genetically modified animal and represents the vanguard of this long-promised science.

When DNA Turns on Itself -- (Science A Go Go -- February 13, 2006)
http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20060113011006data_trunc_sys.shtml
A study conducted at The University of Texas has shown that DNA itself can be a catalyst for cancers such as leukemia and lymphoma. Normal DNA is said to become problematic when it twists in the opposite direction to its familiar right hand spiral, thereby becoming what researchers have dubbed Z-DNA.

Cancer Deaths Fall for First Time -- (CNN -- February 9, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/02/09/cancer.deaths.ap/index.html
The war on cancer may have reached a dramatic turning point: For the first time in more than 70 years, annual cancer deaths in the United States have fallen. The number of cancer deaths dropped to 556,902 in 2003, down from 557,271 the year before. It's the first annual decrease in total cancer deaths since 1930, when nationwide data began to be compiled.

Gasping Cells Theory of Cot Death -- (BBC -- February 14, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4708086.stm
Cot death could be caused by a genetic defect which means babies who stop breathing cannot kick-start their lungs. Researchers have discovered brain cells that generate nervous impulses essential for gasping, but not normal breathing. They believe a deficiency in these cells could explain some cases of unexplained baby deaths.

Lab-Made Human Collagen Promising -- (NewsDaily -- February 15, 2006)
http://www.newsdaily.com/Science/UPI-1-20060214-18211500-bc-us-newcollagen-analysis.xml
Collagen, the glue of the human body, has been chemically synthesized in a university laboratory, and its developers think it will be able to solve problems in both medicine and materials science. The possible uses for synthetically made human collagen are far-ranging, the researchers say, from wound healing and a potential cure for arthritis to non-biological applications, such as the use as building materials for wires used in sensing devices.

NANOTECHNOLOGY

Researchers, Others to Explore Nanotechnology and Forest Products
Nanotubes Break Superconducting Record

Researchers, Others to Explore Nanotechnology and Forest Products -- (Newswise -- February 14, 2006)
http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/518049/
Recognizing that nanotechnology could revolutionize forest products industries worldwide, the USDA Forest Service's Forest Products Laboratory (FPL) is cosponsoring a conference to examine global scientific and economic trends that are shaping future technologies and markets. Topics range from strategic planning for the application of nanotechnology to highly technical topics such as the challenges involved in putting biosensors on paper

Nanotubes Break Superconducting Record -- (PhysicsWeb -- February 14, 2006)
http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/10/2/8/1
Physicists in Japan have shown that "entirely end-bonded" multi-walled carbon nanotubes can superconduct at temperatures as high as 12 K, which is 30 times greater than for single-walled carbon nanotubes. The superconducting nanotubes could be used to study fundamental 1D quantum effects and also find practical applications in molecular quantum computing

GLOBAL EPIDEMIC

New Fund Aims Venture Capital at Emerging Public Health Risks
Island Disease Hits 50,000 People
Report Depicts China as Launching Pad for Avian Flu
'Miracle' Bird Flu Jab Sought

New Fund Aims Venture Capital at Emerging Public Health Risks -- (The Washington Post -- February 16, 2006)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/15/AR2006021502469.html
A Silicon Valley venture capital firm with a 30-year reputation for seeing the next new thing, said yesterday that it had raised a $200 million fund to invest in companies battling the next new virus. The pandemic fund calls attention to innovators who are needed to fight emerging health threats. However, the amount of money that can be made developing new technologies to fight emerging biological threats, such as bird flu, is still an open question.

Island Disease Hits 50,000 People -- (BBC -- February 2, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4674376.stm
A crippling mosquito-borne disease is spreading at an accelerating rate on the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion, health officials say. They say the number of cases of the viral illness, known a "chikungunya", had risen to 50,000, an increase of 15,000 in the past week alone. The disease is not fatal, but those affected suffer high fever and severe pain. There is no cure or vaccine. Hundreds of troops have been deployed on the island to eradicate mosquitoes.

Report Depicts China as Launching Pad for Avian Flu -- (CIDRAP -- February 10, 2006)
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/feb1006h5n1.html
An analysis of influenza viruses collected from thousands of wild and domestic birds in China and Hong Kong suggests that H5N1 viruses have been circulating in southern China for nearly a decade and have spread repeatedly from there to spark outbreaks across Asia. The study by 27 researchers from China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the United States provides strong evidence that migratory birds can spread the virus for long distances, a contention that has been controversial in recent months.

'Miracle' Bird Flu Jab Sought -- (The Standard -- February 14, 2006)
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=17&art_id=11962&sid=6647903&con_type=1
Researchers bracing for a global flu epidemic are in frantic search of a way to perform a "loaves-and-fishes" miracle with the world's skimpy annual production of vaccine. That production, about 300 million flu shots a year, cannot be increased quickly or easily, no matter how dire the circumstances. If more than a tiny fraction of the world's 6.8 billion people is to be protected, a way must be found to stretch the supply

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Botnets No. 1 Emerging Internet Threat
The End of the Internet?
New Microchips Shun Transistors
First Full Motion Stamp Out in The Netherlands

Botnets No. 1 Emerging Internet Threat -- (CNN -- January 31, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/internet/01/31/furst/index.html
A "botnet" is a network of zombie computers- thousands of personal computers surreptitiously are infected with code that allows an unauthorized user to control them via the Internet. The computers can be used to spread spam, launch denial-of-service attacks against Web sites and conduct fraudulent activities.

The End of the Internet? -- (The Nation -- February 1, 2006)
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060213/chester
The nation's largest telephone and cable companies are crafting an alarming set of strategies that would transform the free, open and nondiscriminatory Internet of today to a privately run and branded service that would charge a fee for virtually everything we do online. Verizon, Comcast, Bell South and other communications giants are developing strategies that would track and store information on our every move in cyberspace in a vast data-collection and marketing system, the scope of which could rival the National Security Agency

New Microchips Shun Transistors -- (Wired -- February 14, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,70190-0.html?tw=wn_technology_2
For the first time, researchers have created a working prototype of a radical new chip design based on magnetism instead of electrical transistors. As transistor-based microchips hit the limits of Moore's Law, a group of electrical engineers at the University of Notre Dame has fabricated a chip that uses nanoscale magnetic "islands" to juggle the ones and zeroes of binary code.

First Full Motion Stamp Out in The Netherlands -- (WebWire -- February 9, 2006)
http://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?SESSIONID=&aId=9257
Holland just issued two regular-costing 39-euro-cent stamps with moving images. These unique plastic stamps use lenticular technology to lace twelve film stills together to replay the winning Olympic races of two skating legends (in Holland). These stamps are available now from the Dutch post office.

SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SHIFTS

Virginia Nurse Investigated for “Sedition” for Criticizing Bush -- (Common Dreams -- February 10, 2006)
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0210-34.htm
After writing a letter to the editor of a weekly newpaper, a Virginia nurse had her computer seized by VA administrators. They alleged that she had written the letter on that computer, and accused her of “sedition.” Written shortly after Katrina, the letter criticized the Bush Administration, stating that the current government administration should be removed. The ACLU of New Mexico is working on behalf of the nurse, arguing her First Amendment rights were violated.

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Food Scarcity is Hitting Sparrows
Scientists Hail Discovery of Hundreds of New Species in Remote New Guinea
Oxford Seeks PC Users to Help Map Climate Change
Research Needed on Marine Sound
Ice Disappearing from Kilimanjaro
Are Skies Dimming Over Earth?
Methane Release from Melting Permafrost
Biotech's Sparse Harvest

Food Scarcity is Hitting Sparrows -- (BBC -- February 9, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4686136.stm
The decline of the house sparrow, one of Britain's best known birds, could be cause by to a lack of insects and spiders during the summer months, experts say. Researchers claim adult sparrows are struggling to find enough food to feed their chicks in the early stages of their lives. Between 1977 and 2000, House Sparrow numbers in the UK have declined by 65%.

Scientists Hail Discovery of Hundreds of New Species in Remote New Guinea -- (The Independent -- February 9, 2006)
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article343740.ece
An astonishing "lost world" of previously unknown and rare animals and plants high in the mountain rainforests of New Guinea has been uncovered by an international team of scientists. Among the new species of birds, frogs, butterflies and palms discovered in the expedition through this pristine environment, untouched by man, was the spectacular Berlepsch's six-wired bird of paradise. The scientists are the first outsiders to see it.

Oxford Seeks PC Users to Help Map Climate Change -- (Reuters -- February 14, 2006)
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=scienceNews&storyID=2006-02-14
T150925Z_01_L14722762_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENVIRONMENT-CLIMATE.xml&archived=False
Scientists have set out to harness the power of home computers to predict climate change more accurately than ever before. Using the reach of the mass media and the forecasting techniques of Britain's Meteorological Office, they hope to persuade thousands of people to take part. "If 10,000 people join in, you are already bigger than the world's biggest supercomputer," said one scientist.

Research Needed on Marine Sound -- (BBC -- February 13, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4706670.stm
Research into the effect of sound in the oceans on marine mammals should be commissioned a new report recommends. Researchers say mammals are affected by many sounds, including sonar, oil exploration and shipping., and suggests research should include deliberately exposing mammals to noise. There has been speculation that the whale found in the Thames recently had been disorientated by sounds.

Ice Disappearing from Kilimanjaro -- (NewsDaily -- February 15, 2006)
http://www.newsdaily.com/Science/UPI-1-20060214-17421000-bc-us-globalwarming.xml
Ohio State University scientists, five years after warning the ice fields on Mount Kilimanjaro might melt, now say their prediction is coming true. In 2002, the scientists found the tops of the ice fields had lowered by at least 56 feet since 1962, an average reduction of about 1.5 feet in height each year. No new ice has formed on any of the ice fields since 2000.

Are Skies Dimming Over Earth? -- (ABC -- February 9, 2006)
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=1566139
Scientists have long argued that human activity may be warming the Earth through a process known as the greenhouse effect. Now studies show we may also be having a different kind of impact: global dimming. Researchers have found the amount of sunlight hitting the ground over China dropped by 3.7 watts per square yard over the last 50 years.

Methane Release from Melting Permafrost -- (Magnetic Power Inc -- February 21, 2006)
http://magneticpowerinc.com/relativity.html
A crucial global warming "tipping point", highlighted by the British Government, has apparently already been passed, with possibly irreversible consequences. No matter what we do, some of global warming's worst predicted effects, including increased hunger for billions of people, cannot likely be avoided.

Biotech's Sparse Harvest -- (New York Times -- February 14, 2006)
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/14/business/14gene.html?_r=1
&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1140104704-ng+S98tqmmfkDomxhrl6EQ
At the dawn of the era of genetically engineered crops, scientists were envisioning all sorts of healthier and tastier foods, including cancer-fighting tomatoes and rot-resistant fruits. But so far, most of the genetically modified crops have provided benefits mainly to farmers, by making it easier for them to control weeds and insects. Now, millions of dollars later, the next generation of biotech crops, the first with direct benefits for consumers, is finally on the horizon. But the list does not include many of the products once envisioned.

TERRORISM AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE

Videogames Integral to U.S. Military
E-Weapons: Directed Energy Warfare in The 21st Century

Videogames Integral to U.S. Military -- (NewsDaily -- February 14, 2006)
http://www.newsdaily.com/TopNews/UPI-1-20060214-10332700-bc-us-combattraining.xml
Using videogames to train today's U.S. military recruits, who grew up with XBoxes and PlayStations, is necessary and natural says a new report. With videogame shooting experience before and after entering the military, today's recruits are expected to feel less inhibited pointing their weapons at somebody. That "provides a better foundation for us to work with," said Marine Lt. Col. Scott Sutton.

E-Weapons: Directed Energy Warfare in The 21st Century -- (Space -- January 11, 2006)
http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/060111_e-weapons.html
There is a new breed of weaponry fast approaching, and at the speed of light no less. They are labeled "directed-energy weapons" and may well signal a revolution in military hardware, perhaps more so than the atomic bomb. Directed-energy weapons take the form of lasers, high-powered microwaves, and particle beams.

AUGMENTED INTELLIGENCE

The 50 Best Robots Ever -- (Wired -- January 31, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.01/robots.html
They're exploring the deep sea and distant planets. They're saving lives in the operating room and on the battlefield. They're transforming factory floors and filmmaking. The growth of robots in our lives has prompted this website to list its top 50 favorite robots.

ENERGY REVOLUTION

Spray-On Solar-Power Cells Are True Breakthrough
New System Could Cut Solar Costs
Has World Oil Production Passed Its Peak?
Mazda to Lease Gasoline-Hydrogen Car in Japan
UK Should Pursue Carbon Capture

Spray-On Solar-Power Cells Are True Breakthrough -- (National Geographic -- January 14, 2006)
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0114_050114_solarplastic.html
Scientists have invented a plastic solar cell that can turn the sun's power into electrical energy, even on a cloudy day. The plastic material uses nanotechnology and contains the first solar cells able to harness the sun's invisible, infrared rays. The breakthrough has led theorists to predict that plastic solar cells could one day become five times more efficient than current solar cell technology.

New System Could Cut Solar Costs -- (Mercury News -- February 16, 2006)
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/13885800.htm
A new solar energy system devised by entrepreneurs in a Silicon Valley garage could cut the cost of solar power in commercial buildings by at least half. The first version cuts the cost of power per watt of energy by as much as half. A more advanced version will be commercially available in two to three years, and save even more money.

Has World Oil Production Passed Its Peak? -- (Princeton -- February 11, 2006)
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html
Princeton University geology Professor Kenneth Deffeyes has been studying world petroleum production data and has come to the conclusion that the world hit peak oil last December 16, 2005. If he is correct, total world oil production will never surpass what was produced last December. The underlying methodology used for this claim is Hubbert's Postulate.

Mazda to Lease Gasoline-Hydrogen Car in Japan -- (CNN -- February 15, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/AUTOS/02/15/mazda_hydrogen_car.reut/index.html
Japan's Mazda Motor Corp. will begin leasing a dual-fuel car that can run on both hydrogen and gasoline in the auto industry's latest effort to reduce oil consumption in vehicles. Most major auto makers are developing zero-emission hydrogen-powered fuel cell cars as a potential alternative to today's conventional gasoline and diesel engine cars, but believe they are decades away from mass production due to high development costs and lack of infrastructure.

UK Should Pursue Carbon Capture -- (BBC -- February 9, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4695478.stm
Capturing and storing carbon dioxide from power stations could help Britain meet its energy needs while curbing greenhouse gas emissions. A new report says that all new coal power stations should be suitable for carbon capture. The costs are likely to be similar to using renewable energy, it says. It urges the government to lead reform of international treaties to ensure storing CO2 underground is legal.

DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIAL CHANGE

The Secret Cause of Flame Wars
In Defense of the Culture Clash

The Secret Cause of Flame Wars -- (Wired -- February 13, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,70179-0.html?tw=rss.index
According to recent research, you have only a 50-50 chance of ascertaining the tone of any e-mail message. The study also shows that people think they've correctly interpreted the tone of e-mails they receive 90 percent of the time. Those who sent the messages predicted that nearly 80 percent of the time their partners would correctly interpret the tone.

In Defense of the Culture Clash -- (Wired -- February 15, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/internet/0,70209-0.html?tw=wn_index_5
Because of the internet, clashes between the sensibilities of different societies will only increase. Offended parties will press publishers to keep offensive communications off the network. However, if people only publish what's acceptable to most everyone in the world, then the internet will be a far less effective tool for social and political change than it might otherwise be. As companies like Microsoft, Yahoo and Google start to do business in China, we are revisiting the issue of whether the internet will promote democracy or be used as another tool for authoritarian control.

A FINAL QUOTE...

The future is not something we enter. The future is something we create. --Leonard J. Sweet

A special thanks to Bernard Calil, Humera Khan, KurzweilAI, Sher Patterson-Black, Diane Peterson, John C. Peterson, the Schwartzreport, Joel Snell, Ken Dabkowski, Hanna Adeyema, Jin Zhu, and Richard May, our contributors to this issue. If you see something we should know about, do send it along - thanks.
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org