Volume 9, Number 2
02/02/2006
Edited by John L. Petersen
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org

See past issues in the Archives

In This Issue:

Future Facts - from Think Links
Think Links - The Future in the News…Today
A Final Quote

At The Arlington Institute, we believe that to understand the future, you need to have an open mind and cast a very wide net. To that end, FUTUREdition explores a cross-disciplinary palette of issues, from the frontiers of science and technology to major developments in mass media, geopolitics, the environment, and social perspectives.

FUTURE FACTS - FROM THINK LINKS
DID YOU KNOW THAT...

• Scientists have created the first quantum microchip, which could be a giant stride in the race to prodce a new generation of brawny, super-fast computers
• A new robot can recognize the difference between a mirror image of itself and another robot that looks just like it. The ground-breaking technology could eventually lead to robots able to express emotions.
• To recall memories, your brain travels back in time via the ultimate Google search, according to a new study in which scientists found they can monitor the activity and actually predict what you'll think of next.
• An international team of astronomers has found the smallest Earth-like planet yet outside our Solar System. The new planet has five times the Earth's mass and can be found about 25,000 light-years away, close to the center of the Milky Way.
• In one-twentieth of a second, less than half the time it takes to blink, people make aesthetic judgements that influence the rest of their experience with an internet site.

THINK LINKS – THE FUTURE IN THE NEWS...TODAY

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

Tokyo to Get World's First Maglev Elevator
Who is Messing with Your Head?

Tokyo to Get World's First Maglev Elevator -- (CNN -- January 18, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/01/17/maglev.lift.ap/index.html
The world's first elevators controlled by magnetic levitation will debut as early as 2008, a Tokyo-based company said Tuesday. Toshiba Elevator and Building Systems Corp. will employ so-called maglev technology, capable of suspending objects in mid-air through the combination of magnetic attraction and repulsion, to control the lifts, it said in a statement.

Who is Messing with Your Head? -- (New Scientist -- January 26, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18925354.000&print=true
For the past two years, a citizens' panel of 126 Europeans from different age groups and backgrounds has been considering the ethical dilemmas emerging from brain science research. They will be presenting their conclusions to the European Parliament. Topics include do we really want cognitive enhancement via surgery or medication, and if so how do we regulate it? It is already possible to detect a person's intention or perceptions regardless of whether they are aware of them, and even if they try to cover them up? How will we deal with issues such as privacy and responsibility?

NEW REALITIES

Scientists Predict What You'll Think of Next
Strange New Object Found at Edge of Solar System
Smallest Earth-Like Planet Found
We're Pigs in Space, Too
The Solar System Gets Crazier
Spiders Make Best Ever Post-It Notes
Other Dimensions Might Soon be Detected
Rocket on Two Wheels

Scientists Predict What You'll Think of Next -- (Live Science -- January 18, 2006)
http://www.livescience.com/humanbiology/051222_mental_brain.html
To recall memories, your brain travels back in time via the ultimate Google search, according to a new study in which scientists found they can monitor the activity and actually predict what you'll think of next. The work bolsters the validity of a longstanding hypothesis that the human brain takes itself back to the state it was in when a memory was first formed.

Strange New Object Found at Edge of Solar System -- (New Scientist -- January 18, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8455
A large object has been found beyond Pluto traveling in an orbit tilted by 47 degrees to most other bodies in the solar system. Astronomers are at a loss to explain why the object's orbit is so off-kilter while being almost circular. Tentatively named 2004 XR190, the object appears to have a diameter of between 500 and 1000 kilometers, making it somewhere between a fifth and nearly half as wide as Pluto. It lies in a vast ring of icy bodies beyond Neptune called the Kuiper Belt, most of which orbit in nearly the same plane as Earth.

Smallest Earth-Like Planet Found -- (BBC -- January 25, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4647142.stm
An international team of astronomers has found the smallest Earth-like planet yet outside our Solar System. The new planet has five times the Earth's mass and can be found about 25,000 light-years away, close to the centre of the Milky Way. The discovery was made using a method called microlensing, which can detect far-off planets with an Earth-like mass.

We're Pigs in Space, Too -- (Wired -- January 23, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,70056-0.html?tw=wn_tophead_7
More than 9,000 pieces of space debris are orbiting the Earth, a hazard that can only be expected to get worse in the next few years. Currently there's no workable and economic way to clean up the mess. The pieces of space junk measuring 4 inches or more total some 5,500 tons. Even if space launches were halted now, which will not happen, the collection of debris would continue growing as items already in orbit collide and break into more pieces. One scientist stated "We are not claiming the sky is falling, we just need to understand what the risks are."

The Solar System Gets Crazier -- (Space -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/051219_mystery_monday.html
A swath of space beyond Neptune is getting stranger all the time as astronomers find an ever-more diverse array of objects in various orbits and groupings. A pair of discoveries this month along with a handful of others in 2005 have begun to reveal what some astronomers long suspected: The outer solar system contains a dizzying array of round worlds on countless odd trajectories around the sun, often with multiple satellite systems. The problem is, current theories of the solar system's formation and evolution can't account for it all.

Spiders Make Best Ever Post-It Notes -- (Institute of Physics -- January 24, 2006)
http://physics.iop.org/IOP/Press/PR2904.html
Scientists have found that the way spiders stick to ceilings could be the key to making Post-it notes that don't fall off - even when they are wet. A team from Germany and Switzerland has made the first detailed examinations of a jumping spider's 'foot' and have discovered that a molecular force sticks the spider to almost anything. The force is so strong that these spiders could carry over 170 times their own body weight while standing on the ceiling.

Other Dimensions Might Soon be Detected -- (Science Daily -- January 30, 2006)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/index.php?feed=Science
&article=UPI-1-20060126-17463300-bc-us-dimensions.xml
Scientists say they might soon have evidence of extra dimensions and other exotic predictions. Early results from a neutrino detector at the South Pole called AMANDA suggest ghostlike particles from space could serve as probes to a world beyond our familiar three dimensions, the research team says. The evidence would come from how neutrinos interact with other forms of matter on Earth.

Rocket on Two Wheels -- (CNN -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/01/24/rocket.bike/index.html
Designer Tim Pickens has created a rocket bike, attaching a 200-pound-thrust engine capable of blasting him from 0 to 60 miles an hour in five seconds, fast enough to beat a Porsche in a drag race. The rocket bike employs the same hybrid rocket technology as the suborbital rocket plane SpaceShipOne, whose propulsion system Pickens helped design.

GENTICS/HEALTH TECHNOLOGY

Revenge Replaces Empathy in Male Brain
Is This Life?
Nuclear Physics Technology Saves Lives
Report Slams USDA Biotech Experiments

Revenge Replaces Empathy in Male Brain -- (HON code -- January 26, 2006)
http://www.hon.ch/News/HSN/530423.html
The Germans have a word for it: schadenfreude , loosely translated as "taking joy in the misery of others." Now a new brain-imaging study suggests schadenfreude might be a distinctly male phenomenon. Reward areas in the brains of male volunteers, the same areas that delight in food, drugs or sex, lit up when bad or unfair competitors appeared to be given jolts of pain. The same areas lay dormant when "innocent" individuals got zapped, however. The schadenfreude effect did not surface in the brains of female volunteers, researchers found.

Is This Life? -- (The Scientist -- January 26, 2006)
http://www.the-scientist.com/article/display/18854/
The idea of creating life and thus peering into its possible origins, has always fascinated biologists. In the past decade individual labs have met each of these requirements but in quite different ways. Such an entity must meet 12 requirements for life, of which researchers have satisfied 10. With only two steps remaining, they might achieve a synthetic organism within this decade.

Nuclear Physics Technology Saves Lives -- (Jefferson Lab -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.jlab.org/div_dept/dir_off/public_affairs/news_releases/2006/detector.html
New technology is being used to complement mammograms in cases where they are inconclusive, aiding doctors in more accurately diagnosing breast cancer. The basic technology is called nuclear functional imaging. Researchers began exploring its use as a tool for imaging breast cancer in the late 90s.

Report Slams USDA Biotech Experiments -- (CNN -- January 18, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/01/16/bad.biotech.oversight.ap/index.html
In a report released quietly just before Christmas, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's investigative arm disclosed that the department failed to properly monitor thousands of acres of experimental biotechnology crops. The report by the department's inspector general said USDA didn't thoroughly evaluate applications to grow experimental crops and then didn't ensure the genetically engineered plants were destroyed after experiments.

NANOTECHNOLOGY

MIT Researcher Sees Big Impact of Little Cracks
Italians Create World's Fastest Nanomotor
Laser Beams Build and Hold Nanoscale Structures

MIT Researcher Sees Big Impact of Little Cracks -- (MIT -- January 25, 2006)
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2006/cracks.html
An MIT researcher's atom-by-atom simulation of cracks forming and spreading may help explain how materials fail in nanoscale devices, airplanes and even in the Earth itself during a quake. This work, could impact a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines. The results "represent a major breakthrough in understanding how cracks propagate in a variety of brittle materials, and our theory helps explain experimental and computational observations that have been poorly understood so far."

Italians Create World's Fastest Nanomotor -- (NewsDaily -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.newsdaily.com/Science/UPI-1-20060124-14531900-bc-italy-nanomotor.xml
Italian scientists say they have created the world's fastest nanomotor, a molecular engine designed to carry drugs into cells. The engine, called Sunny because it runs on solar power, is said to be 1 million times faster than the only other eco-friendly nanomotor, which was recently built in the Netherlands.

Laser Beams Build and Hold Nanoscale Structures -- (New Scientist -- January 24, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8621
A form of matter held together by nothing more substantial than light has been created by physicists in the UK. The method, known as "optical binding", was used to glue together about 100 polystyrene beads, each 400-nanometres in diameter, in a flat two-dimensional structure. Researchers say the phenomenon might one day provide a simple way to construct, or reconfigure, nanoscale structures.

GLOBAL EPIDEMIC

3D Structure of HIV is Revealed
Scientists Follow the Money to Predict Epidemics
Scientists Solve Puzzle of Flu Virus Replication
Scientist: Bird Flu Threatens Security

3D Structure of HIV is Revealed -- (BBC -- January 24, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4642940.stm
The 3D structure of the virus which causes AIDS has been revealed for the first time, scientists say. The variable size and shape of HIV has made it hard to map. So the UK-German team took hundreds of images of viruses, which are 60 times smaller than red blood cells, and used a computer program to combine them. Oxford University's Professor Stephen Fuller said the 3D map would assist in understanding how the virus grows.

Scientists Follow the Money to Predict Epidemics -- (Reuters -- January 25, 2006)
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=scienceNews
&storyID=2006-01-25T181657Z_01_L23102184_RTRUKOC_0_US-MONEY-EPIDEMICS.xml&archived=False
A popular U.S. Web site that tracks the geographical circulation of money could offer new insights into predicting the spread of infectious diseases like bird flu. Money, like diseases, is carried by people around the world, so what better way to plot the spread of a potential influenza pandemic than to track the circulation of dollar bills, researchers reasoned.

Scientists Solve Puzzle of Flu Virus Replication -- (Reuters -- January 25, 2006)
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=scienceNews
&storyID=2006-01-25T184753Z_01_L24483149_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-VIRUS.xml
Scientists have solved the genetic puzzle of how influenza A viruses, including the H5N1 bird flu, replicate inside cells, which could help to speed up the development of new drugs to avert a pandemic. As governments bolster efforts to halt the spread of avian flu which has killed 83 people since 2003, an international team of researchers has discovered that the flu virus infects cells by organizing its genetic material in a set of eight segments.

Scientist: Bird Flu Threatens Security -- (NewsDaily -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.newsdaily.com/Science/UPI-1-20060124-18245300-bc-us-birdflu-security.xml
A University of Illinois professor says national leaders must talk less about war and terrorism and more about infectious diseases. Julian Palmoresays world leaders and policymakers need to seriously consider the potential international security implications that would result from an avian influenza pandemic.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

The Importance of Being Pretty
Spin Doctors Create Quantum Chip

The Importance of Being Pretty -- (Wired -- January 19, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,70037-0.html?tw=wn_tophead_8
Internet users can give websites a thumbs up or thumbs down in less than the blink of an eye, according to a study by Canadian researchers. In just a brief one-twentieth of a second, less than half the time it takes to blink, people make aesthetic judgments that influence the rest of their experience with an internet site. The author said the findings had powerful implications for the field of website design.

Spin Doctors Create Quantum Chip -- (Wired -- January 12, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,70001-0.html?tw=wn_tophead_12
University of Michigan scientists have created the first quantum microchip, which could be a giant stride in the race to produce a new generation of brawny, super-fast computers. Working with individual ions is key to building powerful computing machines that will exploit quantum physics, instead of transistors, and trump the power of today's most powerful supercomputers.

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Global Warming Boosts Fungal Epidemic in Frogs
Last Year Was Warmest in a Century
Movement of Earth's North Magnetic Pole Accelerating Rapidly
Arctic Orcas Highly Contaminated
Water Scarcity: A Looming Crisis?
Plants Revealed as Methane Source
Genes Record Orangutans' Decline

Global Warming Boosts Fungal Epidemic in Frogs -- (New Scientist -- January 11, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8569
Global warming may be fuelling a fungal epidemic which is wiping out amphibian populations, according to a new study. And the finding may mean that current estimates of future species extinctions due to climate change may need to be revised upwards. Researchers recently recorded a strong correlation between the occurence of frog extinctions in the tropical mountains of Central and South America, and elevations in sea surface and air temperatures.

Last Year Was Warmest in a Century -- (Discovery -- January 26, 2006)
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20060123/warmestyear_pla.html
2005 was Earth's warmest year in a century, say NASA climatologists, with the years 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004 following close behind. Just about every part of the Earth's surface was warmer than average last year, with the most severe temperature rises in the Arctic, according to the data and analysis of NASA climatologists at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York City. The study is further evidence, added to a mountain of scientific evidence, supporting that global warming is real.

Movement of Earth's North Magnetic Pole Accelerating Rapidly -- (PhysLink -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.physlink.com/News/051209MagneticNorthPole.cfm
After some 400 years of relative stability, Earth's North Magnetic Pole has moved nearly 1,100 kilometers out into the Arctic Ocean during the last century and at its present rate could move from northern Canada to Siberia within the next half-century. If that happens, Alaska may be in danger of losing one of its most stunning natural phenomena, the Northern Lights.

Arctic Orcas Highly Contaminated -- (BBC -- January 18, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4520104.stm
Killer whales have become the most contaminated mammals in the Arctic, new research indicates. Norwegian scientists have found that killer whales - or orcas, as they are sometimes known - have overtaken polar bears at the head of the toxic table. No other arctic mammals have ingested such a high concentration of hazardous man-made chemicals.

Water Scarcity: A Looming Crisis? -- (BBC -- January 18, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3747724.stm
The world's water crisis is simple to understand, if not to solve. The amount of water in the world is finite. The number of us is growing fast and our water use is growing even faster. A third of the world's population lives in water-stressed countries now. By 2025, this is expected to rise to two-thirds. The UN recommends that people need a minimum of 50 liters of water a day for drinking, washing, cooking and sanitation. Providing universal access to that basic minimum worldwide by 2015 would take less than 1% of the amount of water we use today. But we're a long way from achieving that.

Plants Revealed as Methane Source -- (BBC -- January 12, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4604332.stm
Scientists in Germany have discovered that ordinary plants produce significant amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas which helps trap the sun's energy in the atmosphere. The findings have been described as startling, and may force a rethink of the role played by forests in holding back the pace of global warming.

Genes Record Orangutans' Decline -- (BBC -- January 24, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4640420.stm
The dramatic collapse of orangutan populations has been linked to human activity, new genetic evidence shows. Researchers report that a population crash occurred during the past 200 years, coinciding with deforestation in the same area. Researchers suggest that the outlook is "bleak" unless urgent action is taken.

AUGMENTED INTELLIGENCE

Police, Army Robots to Debut in 5 Years
The Robots are Coming!
Robot Demonstrates Self Awareness

Police, Army Robots to Debut in 5 Years -- (The Korea Times -- January 23, 2006)
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200601/kt2006011617112710160.htm
By the 2010s, Korea is expecting to see robots assisting police and the military, patrolling the neighborhoods and going on recon missions on the battlefield. The Center for Intelligent Robots said the state-backed agency plans to check the feasibility of security robots by convening a 40-member planning committee late this week. The government also seeks to build combat robots. They will take the shape of a dog or a horse, with six or eight legs or wheels.

The Robots are Coming! -- (New Scientist -- January 24, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/mech-tech/dn8490
Intelligent robots are among us, albeit mostly still confined to labs. But it won't be long before they are out and about and part of the workforce. And like all oppressed populations, they will inevitably rise up one day. How should we respond? In this extract from his new book, robotics specialist Daniel Wilson has some tips how to deal with a robot rebellion.

Robot Demonstrates Self Awareness -- (Discovery -- January 24, 2006)
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20051219/awarerobot_tec.html
A new robot can recognize the difference between a mirror image of itself and another robot that looks just like it. This so-called mirror image cognition is based on artificial nerve cell groups built into the robot's computer brain that give it the ability to recognize itself and acknowledge others. The ground-breaking technology could eventually lead to robots able to express emotions.

ENERGY REVOLUTION

Ethanol Could Reduce Fossil Fuel Need
Oil-Stung Caribbean Looks at Energy Alternatives
All About Plug-In Hybrids (PHEVs)
China to Build World's First "Artificial Sun" Device

Ethanol Could Reduce Fossil Fuel Need -- (Reuters -- January 30, 2006)
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=science
News&storyID=2006-01-26T211447Z_01_N26180760_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENVIRONMENT-ETHANOL.xml
Ethanol, alcohol produced from corn or other plants, is more energy-efficient than some experts had realized and it is time to start developing it as an alternative to fossil fuels, researchers said. While some critics have said the push for ethanol is based on faulty science and mostly benefits the farm lobby, several new published reviews and commentaries argue otherwise.

Oil-Stung Caribbean Looks at Energy Alternatives -- (Planet Ark -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/34532/story.htm
Caribbean countries, vulnerable to oil shocks and worried that rising global oil prices could drag their economies, are exploring renewable energy to ease high oil-import bills. Solar energy is already used widely in Barbados and some Eastern Caribbean islands, while Jamaica has invested in wind farming and is pursuing other initiatives toward getting a 15 percent contribution from ethanol and other renewable sources to its electricity mix by 2015.

All About Plug-In Hybrids (PHEVs) -- (The California Cars Initiative -- January 26, 2006)
http://www.calcars.org/vehicles.html#comparisons
Plug-in Hybrids, or PHEVs, use the same technology as the popular hybrids on the road today, but have a larger battery that can be recharged by plugging into a standard home outlet. PHEVs are outfitted with a battery pack sufficient to power the vehicle from 20 to 60 miles on battery charge alone. Considering that half the cars on America's roads are driven 25 miles a day or less, a plug-in with a 25-mile range battery could eliminate gasoline use in the daily commute of millions of Americans. This website gives an overview of its future prospects, and includes numerous links for future PHEV car designs.

China to Build World's First "Artificial Sun" Device -- (People's Daily Online -- January 24, 2006)
http://english.people.com.cn/200601/21/eng20060121_237208.html
A full superconducting experimental Tokamak fusion device, which aims to generate infinite, clean nuclear-fusion-based energy, will be built in March or April in Hefei, capital city of east China's Anhui Province. Experiments with the advanced new device will start in July or August. If the experiments prove successful, China will become the first country in the world to build a full superconducting experimental Tokamak fusion device, nicknamed "artificial sun", experts said.

DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIAL CHANGE

A Risk of Total Collapse
Medieval Irish Warlord Boasts Three Million Descendants
Monkey Cops Keep Clans Together
Alone on the Internet? Hardly

A Risk of Total Collapse -- (Gaurdian Unlimited -- January 24, 2006)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1671576,00.html
Is it possible that global civilization might collapse within our lifetime or that of our children? Until recently, such an idea was the preserve of lunatics and cults. In the past few years, however, an increasing number of intelligent and credible people have been warning that global collapse is a genuine possibility. The new doomsayers all point to the same collection of threats: climate change, resource depletion and population imbalances being the most important.

Medieval Irish Warlord Boasts Three Million Descendants -- (New Scientist -- January 19, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8600
Up to three million men around the world could be descended from a prolific medieval Irish king, according to a new genetic study. It suggests that the 5th-century warlord known as "Niall of the Nine Hostages" may be the ancestor of about one in 12 Irishmen, say researchers at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland. Niall established a dynasty of powerful chieftains that dominated the island for six centuries.

Monkey Cops Keep Clans Together -- (New Scientist -- January 25, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8635
Human societies rapidly descend into anarchy and chaos without policing. Now, researchers have found that the same thing happens when groups of monkeys are left to their own devices instead of being policed by dominant males. While they were gone, group cohesion rapidly began to disintegrate. The researchers saw cliques forming and the breakdown of social networks and contact through communal activities like playing, grooming and sitting together. The amount of violence also escalated, with no one to broker the peace.

Alone on the Internet? Hardly -- (CNN -- January 26, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/internet/01/26/social.internet.ap/index.html
The cyber-world expands people's social networks and even encourages people to talk by phone or meet others in person, a new study finds. Researchers also find that U.S. Internet users are more apt to get help on health care, financial and other decisions because they have a larger set of people to which to turn. Rebuking early studies suggesting that the Internet promotes isolation, research found that it was actually helping people maintain their communities.

A FINAL QUOTE...

"The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today." --Franklin Delano Roosevelt

A special thanks to Bernard Calil, Humera Khan, KurzweilAI, Sher Patterson-Black, Diane Peterson, John C. Peterson, the Schwartzreport, Joel Snell, Ken Dabkowski, Hanna Adeyema, Jin Zhu, and Richard May, our contributors to this issue. If you see something we should know about, do send it along - thanks.
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org