Volume 9, Number 16
11/17/2006
Edited by John L. Petersen
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org

See past issues in the Archives

In This Issue:

Future Facts - From Think Links
Think Links - The Future in the News…Today
A Final Quote

FUTURE FACTS - FROM THINK LINKS
DID YOU KNOW THAT...

• There are more than 4 million closed-circuit television cameras in Britain - about one for every 14 people.
• Dirty water kills 5,000 children a day.
• Average human male testosterone levels have dropped by 1% a year for the past 20 years.

The Coming Apocalypse

We are no more than 20 years away from the introduction of an utterly transformative technology: molecular manufacturing. This is the ability to create just about anything molecule-by-molecule, using millions of tiny nanodevices acting in concert inside of a "factory" not much bigger than a laser printer. In principle, you'll be able to make a new toothbrush, laptop or even new nanofactory at home just as easily as you now burn a CD.

Unfortunately, this could also lead to the end of civilization as we know it.

If you've followed arguments about nanotechnology, you might be familiar with terms like "gray goo," the result of armies of nanorobots converting everything in their path into more nanorobots. There's also "green goo" -- nanorobots that go after nature -- and "red goo" -- nanorobots that go after people. Scary stuff. Fortunately, it looks like these would be a lot harder to do and nowhere near as effective as feared.

No, the real threat is more insidious, attacking us not by tearing apart our bodies, but by breaking down our spirits.

I'm talking about Spam. Nanotech spam. Think of it as "pink goo."

Just about every digital technology able to carry a message has been turned into a vehicle for spam, because the cost of sending a million messages is little more than the cost of sending one. Ultra-efficient nanomanufacturing systems will be no exception. Some of the spam will be subtle -- nanofactories that insist on adding marketing slogans on everything they print out ("Made by the StuffStation 5000! StuffStation -- For When You Want More Stuff"). Some of the spam will be a bit more brute force -- super cheap mobile devices made to put advertisements everywhere, even by shouting them at you.

Imagine being unable to escape lurid pitches for herbal viagra, the latest holiday gift idea, or fraudulent get-rich-quick schemes because they're literally coming from all around you.

It gets worse when you add software viruses and the like to the mix. It's not just spammer nanofactories making the spambots, but your own desktop 3D printer. Or, worse, anything that your home nanofactory produces being made with a hacked-in vulnerability to spam.

There are ways we can avoid this nightmare, if we're lucky. It could be that the introduction of exponential manufacturing technologies so undermines traditional businesses that we have a global economic collapse, and spam disappears with all other advertising because nobody can buy anything. It could be that molecular systems make total global surveillance possible, and we willingly build a totalitarian police state to hunt down spammers. Or global warming could do us all in.

If we're really lucky, we'll end up in a world that parallels today's: cat and mouse games between spammers and security; active spam filters (in this case, "filter" robots hunting down spambots on the street); open source advocates offering much more secure systems that almost nobody actually uses; and a wearying, demoralizing sense of the inevitability of it all.

THINK LINKS – THE FUTURE IN THE NEWS...TODAY

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

Britain's Surveillance Society
Del.icio.us

Britain's Surveillance Society -- (BBC -- November 2, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6108496.stm
Fears that the UK would "sleep-walk into a surveillance society" have become a reality, according to the government's own information commissioner. Monitoring of citizens is rising across the board - via the use of credit card, mobile phone and loyalty card information, and closed-circuit television.

Del.icio.us -- (Guardian -- November 4, 2006)
http://technology.guardian.co.uk/news/story/0,,1939057,00.html
A look at the Web 2.0 phenomenon, through one of it's newest venues: Del.icio.us, a program that aims at allowing its users to tap into the 'wisdom of crowds'.

NEW REALITIES

Himalaya Mega-Quakes Likely Every 1000 Years
Free-Electron Laser Shines at Over 14 Kilowatts

Himalaya Mega-Quakes Likely Every 1000 Years -- (New Scientist -- November 9, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn10492-himalaya-megaquakes-likely-every-1000-years.html
A colossal reservoir of energy stored up under the Tibetan plateau has been discovered – and it can only be fully released by mega-earthquakes striking about every 1000 years. A new study suggests that earthquakes in the past 200 years in the central Himalaya, while catastrophic, are small in comparison to what the region has seen in the past - and will see again.

Free-Electron Laser Shines at Over 14 Kilowatts -- (Physorg -- November 8, 2006)
http://www.physorg.com/news82217403.html
The most powerful tunable laser in the world just shattered another power record: the Free-Electron Laser (FEL) produced a 14.2 kilowatt (kW) beam of laser light at an infrared wavelength of 1.61 microns on October 30. The laser's new capabilities will enhance a wide range of defense and scientific applications.

GENTICS/HEALTH TECHNOLOGY

Men's Testosterone Levels Declined in Last 20 Years
Scientists Grow Miniature Human Liver
Retinal Transplant Restores Vision in Mice
Mass Producing Engineered Organs
How to Grow Muscle Cells in a Dish

Men's Testosterone Levels Declined in Last 20 Years -- (Reuters -- October 31, 2006)
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=healthNews&storyid=2006-10-
31T192336Z_01_KIM169763_RTRUKOC_0_US-TESTOSTERONE-LEVELS.xml&src=rss&rpc=22
A new study has found a "substantial" drop in U.S. men's testosterone levels since the 1980s, but the reasons for the decline remain unclear. This trend also does not appear to be related to age. The average levels of the male hormone dropped by 1 percent a year.

Scientists Grow Miniature Human Liver -- (Al Jazeera -- October 31, 2006)
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7FC2C64B-5AFD-4063-AE87-5F8F4E305073.htm
Scientists have grown a miniature artificial human liver. It is hoped the mini-livers could be used to test drugs, reducing the need for animal and human experiments. The organ could also help repair damaged livers and eventually produce entire organs for life-saving transplants.

Retinal Transplant Restores Vision in Mice -- (MIT Technology Review -- November 8, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17768&ch=biotech
The prospect of restoring vision in people who have been blinded by disease is now on the verge of being a real possibility, thanks to the first successful transplant of retinal cells in mice. The eye is largely ignored by the immune system, so the hope is that patients receiving transplants would not even require basic immunosuppressant drugs.

Mass Producing Engineered Organs -- (MIT Technology Review-- November 7, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17740&ch=biotech
The bioartificial kidney is one of the most promising examples to date of a bioengineered medical device. In early clinical trials, it was shown to improve patient survival one month after treatment better than dialysis alone. But scientists now face a challenge that may be as great as designing the device itself: turning a successful academic invention into a mass-produced medical device.

How to Grow Muscle Cells in a Dish -- (Science Daily -- November 1, 2006)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/11/061110080926.htm
Smooth muscle cells are a crucial cellular component of many parts of the body, including blood vessels, the intestines, and the lungs. Understanding how these cells are generated is important for designing therapies for a host of major diseases, most notably for chronic heart disease. And scientists have now shown that smooth muscle cells can be generated from certain cells isolated from the bone marrow of rats, mice, pigs, and humans.

NANOTECHNOLOGY

Nanorust Cleans Arsenic from Drinking Water
Nanoparticle May Give Radiation Protection

Nanorust Cleans Arsenic from Drinking Water -- (Physorg -- November 9, 2006)
http://www.physorg.com/news82305699.html
The discovery of unexpected magnetic interactions between ultrasmall specks of rust is leading scientists to develop a revolutionary, low-cost nano-technology solution for cleaning arsenic from drinking water. The technology holds promise for millions of people in India, Bangladesh and other developing countries where thousands of cases of arsenic poisoning each year are linked to poisoned wells.

Nanoparticle May Give Radiation Protection -- (Space Daily -- November 9, 2006)
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Nanoparticle_May_Give_Radiation_Protection_999.html
A microscopic nanoparticle shows promise in helping reduce the side effects of radiation. The nanoparticle, DF-1, might be part of a "new class of radio-protective agents" that help protect normal tissue from radiation damage just as well as standard drugs. DF-1 - a soccer ball-shaped, hollow, carbon-based structure known as a fullerene - is as good as existing drugs in offering protection from radiation.

GLOBAL EPIDEMIC

Scientists Uncover New Bird Flu Strain
Gorillas Missing Link in HIV Mystery
Chronic Diseases of Rich Countries Begin to Plague Developing Nations
Radioactive Antibody Missiles Home in on HIV
New HIV Patients Today Can Expect to Live 24 Years

Scientists Uncover New Bird Flu Strain -- (ABC -- October 30, 2006)
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=2616679&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312
Scientists have discovered a new strain of bird flu that appears to sidestep current vaccines. It's infecting people as well as poultry in Asia, and some researchers fear its evolution may have been steered by the vaccination programs designed to protect poultry from earlier types of the H5N1 flu.

Gorillas Missing Link in HIV Mystery -- (New Scientist --November 8, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/mg19225775.400-gorillas-missing-link-in-hiv-mystery.html
One more reason not to eat our close living relatives. Of the three strains of HIV known to infect humans, we know that two - the one causing the global AIDS epidemic and another that has infected a small number of people in Cameroon - came from a chimpanzee virus called SIV. The source of the third strain, which infects people in western central Africa, was a mystery. Now we know it came from gorillas.

Chronic Diseases of Rich Countries Begin to Plague Developing Nations -- (Scientific American -- November 10, 2006)
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleid=CEECC482-E7F2-99DF-32F681433184EF6A
The international community has set its sights on easing the burdens of infectious disease and malnutrition around the world. Yet some projections find that a bigger fraction of deaths in developing countries may soon come from chronic ailments such as diabetes, heart disease, cancer and respiratory illness.

Radioactive Antibody Missiles Home in on HIV -- (Scientific American -- November 6, 2006)
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleid=BF918680-E7F2-99DF-3B07A13C4FE0E386&chanId=sa025
It worked for treating cancer; now researchers have found they can send dollops of lethal radiation directly into HIV-infected cells using radioactive antibodies. Antiretroviral drugs keep HIV at bay but do not kill the virus. This new method may kill these cells directly and with minimal harm to the rest of the body, by making radioactive isotopes cluster around HIV-infected cells.

New HIV Patients Today Can Expect to Live 24 Years -- (CNN -- November 10, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/11/10/hiv.costs.ap/index.html
An American found to have the AIDS virus can expect to live for about 24 years on average, and the cost of health care over those two-plus decades is more than $600,000. Both life expectancy and the cost of care have risen from earlier estimates, mainly because of expensive and effective drug therapies.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Single-Photon Source May Allow for Quantum Communication
Supercomputing's Next Revolution

Single-Photon Source May Allow for Quantum Communication -- (Physorg -- November 9, 2006)
http://www.physorg.com/news82281692.html
One of the largest challenges for building quantum communications networks involves having single photons, which are needed to ensure the security and efficiency of quantum systems. With an adequate supply of single photons, quantum communications systems could send information at nearly the speed of light - and scientists have just developed a controllable single-photon source for generating and storing single photons.

Supercomputing's Next Revolution -- (Wired -- November 9, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/computers/0,72090-0.html?tw=wn_index_14
Video gamers' cravings for ever-more-realistic play have spawned a technological arms race that could help cure cancer, predict the next big earthquake in San Francisco and crack many other mathematical puzzles currently beyond the reach of the world's most powerful computers.

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Seafood Faces Collapse by 2048
Fossils Provide Basis for New Debate on Global Warming
Dirty Water Kills 5,000 Children a Day
Ice Study Reveals Climate Change Seesaw

Seafood Faces Collapse by 2048 -- (CNN -- November 3, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/11/02/seafood.crisis.ap/index.html
Clambakes, crab cakes, swordfish steaks and even humble fish sticks could be little more than a fond memory in a few decades. If current trends of overfishing and pollution continue, the populations of just about all seafood face collapse by 2048.

Fossils Provide Basis for New Debate on Global Warming -- (NY Times -- November 10, 2006)
http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?page=article&Article_ID=13840
In recent years, scientists have made sizable gains in what was once considered an impossible art - reconstructing the history of Earth's atmosphere back into the dim past. They can now peer across more than a half billion years. At issue is whether the findings back or undermine the prevailing view on global warming. One side foresees a crisis of planetary heating; the other, temperature increases that would be more nuisance than catastrophe.

Dirty Water Kills 5,000 Children a Day -- (Guardian -- November 10, 2006)
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/water/story/0,,1944323,00.html
Nearly two million children a year die for want of clean water and proper sanitation while the world's poor often pay more for their water than people in Britain or the US. Globally, 1.1 billion people do not have safe water and 2.6 billion suffer from inadequate sewerage. This is not because of water scarcity - rather, the causes are poverty, inequality and government failure.

Ice Study Reveals Climate Change Seesaw -- (Guardian -- November 10, 2006)
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1945045,00.html
During the last ice age, a cooling climate in Greenland caused Antarctica to warm up, according to scientists. Researchers have discovered that the degree of warming in the south was directly related to cold periods in the north. They believe this climatic 'seesaw' can be accounted for by changes in ocean currents flowing between the tropics and high latitudes.

ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS

Cheap, Super-Efficient Solar
Biofuels Discovery May End Dependence on Natural Gas
Two-Battery Strategy for Fuel-Cell Buses
Building a Better Battery
Arctic Reserves Won't Replace OPEC Crude

Cheap, Super-Efficient Solar -- (MIT Technology Review -- November 9, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17774&ch=energy
Technologies collectively known as concentrating photovoltaics are starting to enjoy their day in the sun, thanks to advances in solar cells, which absorb light and convert it into electricity, and the mirror- or lens-based concentrator systems that focus light on them. The technology could soon make solar power as cheap as electricity from the grid.

Biofuels Discovery May End Dependence on Natural Gas -- (Scientific American -- November 3, 2006)
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleid=AEF23E63-E7F2-99DF-31C96E17711372DA&chanId=sa026
Researchers have developed a new, carbon-neutral way to convert vegetable-based fuels to syngas, a breakthrough that could allow producers to power hydrogen fuel cells or create a replacement for America's dwindling supplies of natural gas, all without relying on fossil fuels.

Two-Battery Strategy for Fuel-Cell Buses -- (MIT Technology Review -- November 2, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17706&ch=energy
Hydrogen fuel cells are still too expensive to be used widely in vehicles, so researchers are taking a different tack: they're slashing the size of the fuel cell to a bare minimum, while relying on two distinct kinds of advanced battery technologies to deliver the necessary horsepower under a wide range of driving conditions.

Building a Better Battery -- (Wired -- November, 2006)
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.11/battery.html
Lithium-ion technology may be approaching its limits. Batteries conform to technical restrictions set by nature and don't obey Moore's law like most of the digital world. In the last 150 years, battery performance has improved only about eightfold - and the hunt is on for a better battery.

Arctic Reserves Won't Replace OPEC Crude -- (Reuters -- November 1, 2006)
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=570&e=10&u=/nm/20061101/sc_nm/energy_arctic_study_dc
There isn't enough oil under the Arctic Circle to replace crude from OPEC, according to new research. Under the circle, 233 billion barrels of oil equivalent in crude and natural gas have been discovered and 166 billion barrels of oil equivalent are thought to remain undiscovered.

TERRORISM, SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE

Social Security Data a Major Source in Terrorism Probes -- (Washington Post -- November 10, 2006)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110901526.html
Since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the Social Security Administration's vast databases of personal information have become a resource for federal investigators, who have asked the agency to check tens of thousands of records for number misuse and identity fraud - potential precursors to terrorist activity.

ECONOMIC SHOCK

China's Reserve Plans Keep Market on Edge -- (Reuters -- November 10, 2006)
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006
-11-10T185404Z_01_N10276942_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-CHINA-
CURRENCIES.xml&src=111006_14_INVESTING_comment_n_analysis
China may or may not be speeding up plans to shift its $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves away from dollars, but investors aren't taking any chances. Traders unloaded the greenback as soon as People's Bank of China Governor announced that the bank will keep diversifying its dollar-heavy portfolio, a catalyst that may spark a sustained dollar decline.

CONTACT AND THE EXPLORATION OF SPACE

First Light for Hinode
Storm Spotted on Saturn
Moon's Escaping Gasses Expose Fresh Surface
Sci-Fi Life Support

First Light for Hinode -- (NASA-- November 2, 2006)
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/02nov_firstlight.htm?list750202
The Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) onboard Japan's Hinode spacecraft has opened its doors and started snapping pictures. Hinode is on a mission to study the sun - specifically sunspots, which give rise to powerful flares and solar storms.

Storm Spotted on Saturn -- (Al Jazeera-- November 10, 2006)
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D955448B-D14F-4BED-A5E1-09E8E42AA028.htm
A giant storm with a hurricane-like eye has been spotted at Saturn's south pole, the first time a storm has been seen on a planet other than Earth. The storm on the giant ringed planet is around 8000 kilometers wide, measuring around two-thirds the diameter of Earth.

Moon's Escaping Gasses Expose Fresh Surface -- (Physorg -- November 8, 2006)
http://www.physorg.com/news82217633.html
Conventional wisdom suggests that the moon has seen no widespread volcanic activity for at least the last three billion years. Now, a fresh look at existing data points to much more recent release of lunar gasses.

Sci-Fi Life Support -- (NASA-- October 30, 2006)
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/30oct_eclss.htm?list750202
In Frank Herbert's epic novel Dune, set on the fictitious desert planet Arrakis, water is so precious that even perspiration and breath moisture are captured and purified for drinking. On real-life voyages to the Moon and Mars, science fact may end up imitating science fiction. Indeed, scientists and engineers at NASA are putting the finishing touches on systems for capturing exhaled carbon dioxide and urine and turning them into breathable oxygen and drinking water.

JUST FOR FUN

Learn While You Sleep -- (MIT Technology Review -- November 6, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17732&ch=biotech
There is evidence to suggest that REM sleep and non-REM sleep serve to strengthen neuron connections for different kinds of memories. Now, researchers may have found that by using the right timing and electrical stimulation, they can improve a person's ability to remember facts by sending impulses to your brain as you sleep.

A FINAL QUOTE...

The drive toward complex technical achievement offers a clue to why the U.S. is good at space gadgetry and bad at slum problems. -John Kenneth Galbraith

A special thanks to Hanna Adeyema, Bernard Calil, Ken Dabkowski, Neil Freer, Humera Khan, KurzweilAI, Sher Patterson-Black, Diane C. Petersen, John C. Petersen, the Schwartzreport, Joel Snell and Matthew W. Sollenberger our contributors to this issue. If you see something we should know about, do send it along - thanks.
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org