Volume 9, Number 14
10/26/2006
Edited by John L. Petersen
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org

See past issues in the Archives

In This Issue:

TAI Presents: A Lecture on Morphological Analysis
Press Release: The Great Warming - Call to Action
Future Facts - From Think Links
Think Links - The Future in the News…Today
A Final Quote

TAI PRESENTS:

Dr. Tom Ritchey
of the
Swedish Defense Research Agency
On Morphological Analysis
November 14th – 4:30PM
at
The Arlington Institute

Many of you have become familiar with TAI’s Scenario Planning methodology. At our next TAI PRESENTS, we are excited to have the opportunity to present a complementary approach. We are very fortunate that Dr. Tom Ritchey (http://swemorph.com/index.html) of the Swedish Defense Research Agency will be visiting TAI in Mid November. He is an expert on the use of Morphological Analysis for solving complex and messy problems. Tom has been conducting practical workshops with agencies and organizations around the world for the last 15 years.

Tom will be taking this opportunity to present his framework and methodology on how Morphological Analysis techniques can be used to solve complex and intractable issues.

Tom will be presenting this framework during a 1.5 hour session at TAI on 11/14, 4:30pm. Please RSVP by Thursday November 2nd if you plan on attending – space is limited. Late registrants may be accepted if there is space available.

RSVP for this lecture at Ken@arlingtoninstitute.org

The Arlington Institute is located at 1501 Lee Highway in Arlington, Virginia. Parking is available in the building. 1-703-812-7900

Great Warming: Call to Action

FUTURE FACTS - FROM THINK LINKS
DID YOU KNOW THAT...

• Greenland had a net loss of 100 gigatons of ice per year between 2003 and 2005.
• 2,000 sq km of Nigeria is becoming desert each year.
• Plug-in hybrid vehicles could replace 80 percent of the gasoline used in the United States.
• In some countries, including Germany, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands, there is no longer any night sky untainted by light pollution.
• Incandescent light bulbs turn 5 percent of the energy they use into light. The other 95 percent is wasted.

THINK LINKS – THE FUTURE IN THE NEWS...TODAY

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

FDA Set to Approve Milk, Meat from Clones
Used Cell phones Hold Trove of Secrets

FDA Set to Approve Milk, Meat from Clones -- (Washington Post -- October 17, 2006)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/16/AR2006101601337.html
Three years after the FDA first hinted that it might permit the sale of milk and meat from cloned animals, the agency is poised fully endorse the policy. The decision will be based largely on new data indicating that milk and meat from cloned livestock pose no unique risks to consumers.

Used Cell phones Hold Trove of Secrets -- (Washington Post -- October 21, 2006)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/20/AR2006102001647.html
Hackers or sleuths armed with commercially available software can fairly easily resurrect erased data on cell phones, including address books and calendar contacts, photos, videos and e-mails, turning used phones into a treasure trove for identity thieves.

NEW REALITIES

Teenager Moves Video Icons by Imagination
Fish Fossil Fills Evolutionary Gap
Controversy-Plagued Super-Heavy Element 118 Finally Created
Pig-to-Human Transplants on the Horizon

Teenager Moves Video Icons by Imagination -- (Washington University in St. Louis -- October 9, 2006)
http://news-info.wustl.edu/news/page/normal/7800.html
A 14-year-old boy is the first human to play a video game, Space Invaders, using only the signals from his brain to make movements. Getting subjects to move objects using only their brains has implications toward building biomedical devices that can control artificial limbs, enabling the disabled to move a prosthetic by thinking about it.

Fish Fossil Fills Evolutionary Gap -- (Al Jazeera-- October 19, 2006)
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/
3CEBF9A9-EE2F-46F5-82BD-98727AC0529F.htm
A new fossil has provided the previously missing clue in vertebrate evolution, the world's first complete perfect skeleton of the kinds of fishes that gave rise to the first land animals.

Controversy-Plagued Super-Heavy Element 118 Finally Created -- (Physorg -- October 16, 2006)
http://www.physorg.com/news80226997.html
Scientists have observed atomic decay patterns, or chains, that establish the existence of element 118. In these decay chains, previously observed element 116 is produced via the alpha decay of element 118.

Pig-to-Human Transplants on the Horizon -- (MIT Technology Review -- October 10, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17596&ch=biotech
Thousands of patients die every year in the United States waiting for a suitable human donor organ. Surgeons believe they are close to creating genetically engineered pigs and pig immune tissue that can prime the primate immune system to accept foreign parts and thereby end the organ shortage.

GENTICS/HEALTH TECHNOLOGY

Self-Assembling Gel Stops Bleeding in Seconds
Bad Drug Reactions Found to Be Common
South Korean scientists develop cancer-killing virus
A New Alzheimer's Vaccine

Self-Assembling Gel Stops Bleeding in Seconds -- (New Scientist-- October 10, 2006)
http://www.newscientisttech.com/article.ns?id=dn10265
Swab a clear liquid onto a gaping wound and watch the bleeding stop in seconds. An international team of researchers has accomplished just that in animals, using a solution of protein molecules that self-organize on the nanoscale into a biodegradable gel that stops bleeding.

Bad Drug Reactions Found to Be Common -- (Washington Post -- October 18, 2006)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/10/17/AR2006101701513.html?referrer=email
Harmful reactions to some of the most widely used medicines, including insulin and a common antibiotic, send more than 700,000 Americans to emergency rooms each year. Accidental overdoses and allergic reactions to prescription drugs have been the most frequent causes of serious reactions.

South Korean scientists develop cancer-killing virus-- (Breitbart -- October 19, 2006)
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/19/061019102114.ms2asupj.html
Scientists claim to have developed a new, genetically altered strain of virus that is highly efficient in targeting and killing cancer cells. The new therapy uses a genetically-engineered form of the adenovirus, which normally causes colds.

A New Alzheimer's Vaccine -- (MIT Technology Review -- October 19, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17634&ch=biotech
New approaches to immunizing patients against the harmful protein buildup, characteristic of Alzheimer's disease, offer hope for safer treatments. Alzheimer's vaccines work by preventing or clearing the buildup of a protein, known as beta-amyloid, which clogs the brains of Alzheimer's patients.

GLOBAL EPIDEMIC

Antibiotics Increase Chance of Risky Infections
China becoming "like Africa" with AIDS Scourge
From Burgers to Spinach, Food Chain is Vulnerable

Antibiotics Increase Chance of Risky Infections -- (ABC -- October 13, 2006)
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Depression/story?id=
2560009&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312
Taking antibiotics increases the risk that you will contract an infection from antibiotic-resistant bacteria. One study on people who had infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria found they were more than 7 times as likely to have taken antibiotics in the previous 6 months as people who had similar infections that were not resistant to treatment.

China becoming "like Africa" with AIDS Scourge -- (Reuters -- October 17, 2006)
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=SP178040
AIDS in China has spread beyond high risk groups, and the country is becoming "like Africa" in how the virus is transmitted.

From Burgers to Spinach, Food Chain is Vulnerable -- (CNN -- October 10, 2006)
http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/10/09/food.supply.ap/index.html
The recent outbreak of E. coli in spinach from California exposed a weakness in the nation's food chain: A system that quickly delivers meat, fruits and vegetables to consumers just as easily can spread potentially deadly bacteria.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

China Leads Next Generation Internet Development
Memory Spot Chip
Privacy Pitfalls in No-Swipe Credit Cards

China Leads Next Generation Internet Development -- (People's Daily -- September 25, 2006)
http://english.people.com.cn/200609/25/eng20060925_305992.html
Proposed in the mid-1990s, the next generation Internet is estimated to increase information transmitting speed by more than 1000 times, to 40 gigabytes per second. China has successfully built the core network of its next generation Internet.

Memory Spot Chip -- (Smart Economy -- October 14, 2006)
http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/smart_economy/2006/10/hps_memory_spot.html
Researchers have developed a miniature wireless data chip, the size of a grain of rice, which could provide broad access to digital content in the physical world. The tiny chip could be stuck on or embedded in almost any object.

Privacy Pitfalls in No-Swipe Credit Cards-- (NY Times -- October 23, 2006)
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/23/business/23card.html?
ex=1162267200&en=b006e3d7a7ff634c&ei=5070&emc=eta1
Researchers found that the cardholder’s name and other data, contained on new no-swipe credit cards, was being transmitted without encryption and in plain text. They could skim and store the information from a card inside your wallet with a device the size of a couple of paperback books, cobbled together from readily available components for $150.

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Greenland Ice Sheet on a Downward Slide
Imagine Earth without People
Climate Water Threat to Millions
Solar Flares Will Disrupt GPS in 2011
Pollinators' Decline Called Threat to Crops
The Freshwater Boom is Over
Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse Tied to Global Warming
Ozone Hole is a Double Record Breaker

Greenland Ice Sheet on a Downward Slide -- (Science Daily -- October 22, 2006)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/10/061019162746.htm
For the first time NASA scientists have analyzed data from direct, detailed satellite measurements to show that ice losses now far surpass ice gains in the shrinking Greenland ice sheet.

Imagine Earth without People -- (New Scientist -- October 12, 2006)
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19225731
.100?DCMP=NLC-nletter&nsref=mg19225731.100
If tomorrow dawns without humans, even from orbit the change will be evident almost immediately, as the blaze of artificial light that brightens the night begins to wink out.

Climate Water Threat to Millions -- (BBC -- October 20, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6068348.stm
Climate change threatens supplies of water for millions of people in poorer countries. Recent research suggests that by 2050, five times as much land is likely to be under "extreme" drought as now.

Solar Flares Will Disrupt GPS in 2011 -- (New Scientist -- September 29, 2006)
http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn10189-solar-flares-will-disrupt-gps-in-2011.html
Global Positioning System receivers have been found to be unexpectedly vulnerable to bursts of radio noise produced by solar flares. When solar activity peaks in 2011 and 2012, it could cause widespread disruption to aircraft navigation and emergency location systems that rely heavily on satellite navigation data.

Pollinators' Decline Called Threat to Crops -- (Washington Post -- October 19, 2006)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/10/18/AR2006101801712.html?referrer=email
Birds, bees, bats and other species that pollinate North American plant life are losing population. This "demonstrably downward" trend could damage dozens of commercially important crops, since three-quarters of all flowering plants depend on pollinators for fertilization.

The Freshwater Boom is Over -- (The Guardian -- October 10, 2006)
http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/101006EB.shtml
While climate scientists have been predicting that the wet parts of the world are likely to become wetter and the dry parts drier, they had assumed that overall rainfall would rise, as higher temperatures increase evaporation. This new paper's "drought index" covers both rainfall and evaporation and shows that, overall, the world becomes drier.

Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse Tied to Global Warming -- (Environment NS-- October 16, 2006)
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/oct2006/2006-10-16-03.asp
Scientists reported the first direct evidence linking the 2002 collapse of an Antarctic ice shelf to global warming. The researchers found that stronger westerly winds in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, fueled primarily by human-induced climate change, were responsible for the dramatic summer warming that led to the retreat and collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf.

Ozone Hole is a Double Record Breaker -- (NASA -- October 19, 2006)
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/ozone_record.html
This year's ozone hole in the polar region of the Southern Hemisphere has broken records for area and depth. From September 21 to 30, the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed, at 10.6 million square miles.

ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS

Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels
The Cost of Lighting the World
A Practical Fuel-Cell Power Plant

Existing Tech Could Replace Fossil Fuels -- (MIT Technology Review -- September 01, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/posts.aspx?id=17381
Researchers say that the combined use of alternative energies for which we already have reliable technology "could replace all fossil fuel power plants." And that the use of hydrogen for vehicle fuel is a bad idea in most cases - as using electricity directly in vehicles (stored in batteries) rather than to generate hydrogen is three times cheaper.

The Cost of Lighting the World -- (BBC -- October 23, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6067900.stm
A major advance in light technology is not far away. The latest advances have been light-emitting diodes - LEDs - and are developing at a very fast rate. Because the individual LEDs are so small, they can be put into highly efficient optical systems.

A Practical Fuel-Cell Power Plant -- (MIT Technology Review -- October 23, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17644&ch=energy
New fuel-cell plants could be built for about $800 a kilowatt, which starts to approach the $500-to-$550-per-kilowatt cost of building a conventional gas-fired power plant. A six-kilowatt prototype has achieved 49 percent efficiency in converting fuel into electricity, which compares favorably with the 35 percent efficiency of conventional coal-burning power plant.

TERRORISM, SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE

Bush Signs New Rules on Detainees
A New Threat: Remote-Controlled Toys
Working Invisibility Cloak Created
Invention: Invisible drones
U.S.: 'Keep Out of My (Outer) Space'

Bush Signs New Rules on Detainees -- (LA Times -- October 18, 2006)
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-detain
18oct18,0,6045778.story?coll=la-home-headlines
The new law eliminates federal court jurisdiction over dozens of lawsuits filed on behalf of prisoners held at U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. And this one amongst many controversial provisions in the latest anti-terror legislation, which continues a somewhat disconcerting trend in the erosion of civil liberties.

A New Threat: Remote-Controlled Toys -- (Reuters -- October 10, 2006)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061010/od_nm/srilanka_toys_dc_1
Sri Lanka has banned imports of remote-controlled toy cars, boats and planes because of fears that Tamil Tiger rebels could use them as bombs. They fear that remote-controlled planes and cars could be sent underneath a vehicle and detonate explosive payloads of up to 6 pounds.

Working Invisibility Cloak Created -- (New Scientist -- October 19, 2006)
http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn10334
An invisibility cloak that works in the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum has been unveiled. The device is the first practical version ever created. The cloak works by steering microwave light around an object, making it appear to an observer as if it were not there at all.

Invention: Invisible drones -- (New Scientist -- October 02, 2006)
http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn10202?
DCMP=NLC-nletter&nsref=dn10202
"Persistence of vision" turns the fast-moving rotors of any helicopter into a near-transparent blur, while the slow-moving body looks solid. Inventors have now come up with a way of making the whole body of an aircraft spin as it flies, turning it into a single blur in the sky. This would not evade radar but should help the aircraft avoid visual identification.

U.S.: 'Keep Out of My (Outer) Space' -- (ABC -- October 18, 2006)
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=2583812&page=1
The White House has quietly put out a new National Space Policy - a document that, among other things, makes it clear that the Bush administration will not sign any treaty that limits America's ability to put weapons in orbit. The policy states, "... the United States will preserve its rights, capabilities and freedom of action in space … and deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests."

CONTACT AND THE EXPLORATION OF SPACE

Huge 'Launch Ring' to Fling Satellites into Orbit
New Image Gives Insight into Colliding Galaxies

Huge 'Launch Ring' to Fling Satellites into Orbit -- (New Scientist-- October 3, 2006)
http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn10180
An enormous ring of superconducting magnets similar to a particle accelerator could fling satellites into space, or perhaps weapons around the world, opening the possibility of cheap satellite launches.

New Image Gives Insight into Colliding Galaxies -- (Reuters -- October 17, 2006)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061017/sc_nm/space_galaxy_dc
A seemingly violent collision of two galaxies is in fact a fertile marriage that has birthed billions of new stars - serving as a preview for the Milky Way's likely collision with the nearby Andromeda Galaxy, about 6 billion years from now.

DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIAL CHANGE

Woman Gives Birth to Grandchild
Way Radical, Dude
US Shows Signs of Net Addiction
Drought Despair Taking Farmers' Lives

Woman Gives Birth to Grandchild -- (BBC -- October 15, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6052584.stm
A woman in her 50s gave birth to her own grandchild last year, using an egg from her daughter and sperm from her son-in-law.

Way Radical, Dude -- (Washington Post -- October 19, 2006)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2006/10/08/AR2006100800931.html
In the shoot-'em-up genre, who's the hero and who's the enemy now depends on who's programming the game. And one game's villain is, indeed, another game's hero.

US Shows Signs of Net Addiction -- (BBC -- October 18, 2006)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6062980.stm
More than one in eight adults in the US show signs of being addicted to the internet. "Addicts" showed signs of compulsive internet use, habitually checking e-mail, websites and chat rooms. A typical addict is a single, white college-educated male in his 30s, who spends more than 30 hours a week on "non-essential" computer use.

Drought Despair Taking Farmers' Lives -- (AU News -- October 16, 2006)
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20588780-2,00.html
Australia is suffering from what could be its worst drought in history - and this is driving it's farmers to desperate straights. It had been estimated that one Australian farmer committed suicide every four days in 2005.

A FINAL QUOTE...

Technology, while adding daily to our physical ease, throws daily another loop of fine wire around our souls. It contributes hugely to our mobility, which we must not confuse with freedom. The extensions of our senses, which we find so fascinating, are not adding to the discrimination of our minds, since we need increasingly to take the reading of a needle on a dial to discover whether we think something is good or bad, or right or wrong. - Adlai E. Stevenson

A special thanks to Hanna Adeyema, Bernard Calil, Ken Dabkowski, Neil Freer, Ursula Freer, Humera Khan, KurzweilAI, Sher Patterson-Black, Diane C. Petersen, John C. Petersen, the Schwartzreport, Joel Snell and Matthew W. Sollenberger our contributors to this issue. If you see something we should know about, do send it along - thanks.
johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org