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FUTURE FACTS - FROM THIS ISSUE
- Rapid changes in the churning movement of Earth's liquid outer core
are weakening the magnetic field in some regions of the planet's
surface.
- The Large Hadron Collider in a tunnel below the French-Swiss border is
fast becoming one of the coolest places in the Universe.
- Artificial wombs and experiments on human embryos grown in the lab may
be commonplace and no big deal ethically in 30 years.
- Rock Port, Missouri is the first U.S. town powered completely by
wind.
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INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
• Real Racing in the Virtual World • MySpace Signs up to OpenID
Scheme
Real Racing in the
Virtual World – (BBC News – June 11, 2008) For any Formula One fan the chance to race against their heroes would be
a dream come true. Sadly, the closest most of us will ever get is
watching the Grand Prix on television. But that could soon change if a
company from the Netherlands has its way. Andy Lurling, founder of iOpener
Media, said that the patented system his company is developing sucks in
real-time GPS data from racing events and pumps it out to compatible games
consoles and PCs. The idea is that you could pit yourself against the top
drivers in the world, as it happens, from the comfort of your living
room.
MySpace
Signs up to OpenID Scheme – (BBC News – July 23,
2008) The social networking giant, which boasts more than
100 million accounts, has signed up for the OpenID initiative. The project
aims to ease the mental load of going online by letting people use one set
of login details for many different places. Sites such as AOL, Blogger,
Flickr and Yahoo already use OpenID. Open ID removes some of the need to
keep creating new login names and passwords by adopting the approach used
by your computer when it looks up a site name you type into an browser
address bar. The Open ID approach revolves around an already established
web identity that people nominate as their core identifier. When this
identity is used to sign on elsewhere, requests are sent back to the
original place it was created to be verified.
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NEW REALITIES
• Earth's Core, Magnetic Field Changing
Fast • Using Neptunium,
Plutonium Provide Insight into Superconductivity
Earth's Core, Magnetic Field Changing Fast – (National Georgraphic
– June 30, 2008) Rapid changes in the churning
movement of Earth's liquid outer core are weakening the magnetic field in
some regions of the planet's surface. "What is so surprising is that rapid,
almost sudden, changes take place in the Earth's magnetic field," said
study co-author Nils Olsen, a geophysicist at the Danish National Space
Center in Copenhagen. The findings suggest similarly quick changes are
simultaneously occurring in the liquid metal, 1,900 miles (3,000
kilometers) below the surface, he said. The decline in the magnetic field
also is opening Earth's upper atmosphere to intense charged particle
radiation, scientists say.
Using Neptunium, Plutonium Provide Insight into Superconductivity –
(Rutgers – July 21, 2008) While superconductivity
holds promise for massive energy savings in power transmission and for uses
such as levitating trains, today it occurs only at extremely cold
temperatures. As a result, its use is now limited to specialized medical
and scientific instruments. Over the past two decades, scientists have made
metals that turn superconducting at progressively higher temperatures, but
even those have to be cooled below the temperature of liquid nitrogen. Still, physicists believe room temperature superconductivity may be
possible. The work reported by the Rutgers and Columbia physicists is a
step in that direction – shedding new light on the connection between
magnetism and superconductivity.
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DISCOVERIES ENABLED BY NEW
TECHNOLOGY
• Seas Striped With Newfound Currents
• Human Speech Traced to
Talking Fish • Yemen Embraces
its Jurassic Past • Cern Lab
Goes Colder than Space
Seas Striped With Newfound Currents – (Live Science –
July 14, 2008) Sailors and scientists have been mapping
ocean currents for centuries, but it turns out they’ve missed
something big. How big? The entire ocean is striped with 100-mile-wide
bands of slow-moving water that extend right down to the seafloor,
according to a recent study. They flow past each other in opposing
directions at 130 feet per hour—just 1/10th to 1/100th the speed of
major ocean currents—and subtle changes in temperature demarcate
their boundaries.
Human
Speech Traced to Talking Fish – (Live Science – July 18,
2008) Researchers say real fish can communicate with
sound. And they say (the researchers, that is) that your speech skills and,
in fact, all sound production in vertebrates can be traced back to this
ability in fish. (You got your ears from fish, too.) The scientists mapped
developing brain cells in newly hatched midshipman fish larvae and compared
them to those of other species. They found that the chirp of a bird, the
bark of a dog and all the other sounds that come out of animals' mouths are
the products of the neural circuitry likely laid down hundreds of millions
of years ago with the hums and grunts of fish.
Yemen
Embraces its Jurassic Past – (BBC News – July 21,
2008) Tucked away in the heart of rural Yemen, Madar now
finds itself in the limelight after a series of dinosaur prints were
discovered in the village - the first such discovery on the Arabian
Peninsula. The dinosaur tracks have been lying exposed, above ground, for
centuries, but scientists only recently stumbled across them following a
tip-off from a local journalist. The prints - some of which are half a
meter wide - show a herd of eleven dinosaurs walking together and offer a
glimpse into the dinosaurs' behaviour, vital information which cannot be
gleaned by studying fossils alone.
Cern
Lab Goes Colder than Space – (BBC News – July 18,
2008) A vast physics experiment built in a tunnel below
the French-Swiss border is fast becoming one of the coolest places in the
Universe. The Large Hadron Collider is entering the final stages of being
lowered to a temperature of -456F - colder than deep space. The LHC has
thousands of magnets which will be maintained in this frigid condition
using liquid helium. The magnets are arranged in a ring that runs for 27km
through the giant tunnel. The most powerful physics experiment ever built,
the LHC will re-create the conditions just after the Big Bang.
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GENTICS/HEALTH TECHNOLOGY
• Gene Tags Fuel Obesity Epidemic • The Future of Babies • Tobacco Could Help Treat
Cancer • Human-frog Hybrids
Reveal Autism's Secrets •
Animal Tissue Rejection Advance • Human Blood Vessels Grown in
Mice • Tongue Drive
Technology
Gene
Tags Fuel Obesity Epidemic – (BBC News – July 16,
2008) Researchers increasingly believe that the effect of
conditions in the womb on the developing fetus can play an important role
in setting future health. Specifically, the womb environment may be able to
produce chemical changes which control the level at which certain genes
function. This process is called "epigenetics". Mice genetically prone to
obesity get fatter generation by generation. "Epigenetic" tags, which
affect the function of our genes, may be responsible, according to
researchers.
The Future of Babies – (Live Science – July 16,
2008) Artificial wombs and experiments on human embryos
grown in the lab will be commonplace and no big deal ethically in 30 years,
several scientists predict. Here are a couple of the report's other
predictions: newborns and 100-year-olds alike will be able have children
and labs will be able to generate sperm and eggs for anybody.
Tobacco
Could Help Treat Cancer – (BBC News July 21, 2008) The tobacco plant - responsible for millions of cancer cases - may
actually offer the means to treat one form of the disease, a study
suggests. The ironic new role for tobacco is the work of researchers from
Stanford University. They are using the plants as factories for an antibody
chemical specific to the cells which cause follicular B-cell lymphoma, a
type of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. These antibodies are put into a patient
newly-diagnosed with the disease, to "prime" the body's immune system to
attack any cell carrying them.
Human-frog Hybrids Reveal Autism's Secrets – (New Scientist
– July 21, 2008) Human-frog hybrids might reveal
the neurological secrets of autism. By fusing cells from the preserved
brains of deceased autistic patients with the eggs of a carnivorous African
frog called Xenopus, scientists have started investigating the way the
brain cells of people with autism behave. The frog eggs work a little like
human neurons and the hybrid cells act as a surrogate of a living brain
with the condition. "It's almost as if you were studying a neuron in the
human brain," says Ricardo Miledi, a neurobiologist at the University of
California, Irvine, who developed the approach and has previously used
Xenopus eggs to study epilepsy.
Animal
Tissue Rejection Advance – (BBC News – July 21,
2008) Scientists have found a way to overcome the problem
of the human body rejecting animal parts used in transplants. For instance,
chemically treated heart valves from pigs have been transplanted into
patients for more than a decade, but have a limited life span as they are
inert and cannot be populated by the patient's own cells, and ruling out
any possibility of repair to damage. The Leeds team used a combination of
freezing, chemical baths and ultrasound to strip the animal tissue of the
cells and biological molecules that trigger a response from the immune
system. This left a biological scaffold which could then be populated by
cells from a patient's own body, creating a tissue which carries no risk of
rejection, which can be repaired, and which can grow with the body.
Human Blood Vessels Grown in Mice – (BBC News – July
18, 2008) Scientists have used human cells to grow new
blood vessels in a mouse for the first time. Unlike more controversial stem
cell therapies, which might require cells taken from an embryo, the study
used human cells that can be obtained from blood or bone. They were mixed
together in growth-promoting chemicals in the laboratory, then implanted
into mice whose immune systems had been weakened to avoid rejection. Within
seven days, a vigorous network of new vessels formed, joined up with the
host animal's blood vessels and started transporting blood.
Tongue Drive Technology – (National Science Foundation
– July 21, 2008) Researchers have developed an
experimental tongue-based system that may allow individuals with
debilitating disabilities to control wheelchairs, computers and other
devices with relative ease and no sophistication. Because the tongue is
directly connected to the brain via cranial nerves, it usually remains
mobile when other body parts lose function to disease or accidents. That
mobility underlies the new system, which may one day provide greater
flexibility and simplicity to individuals who would otherwise use
sip-and-puff controls or brain implants.
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ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
• Myth of Consensus Explodes: APS Opens
Global Warming Debate • How
Will the Arctic Sea Ice Cover Develop this Summer? • Iceberg Damage to Seafloor
Increases • Penguins
Threatened with Extinction •
Farms in the Sky Gain New Interest • Amazon Outflow Powers Ocean
Capture of Carbon Dioxide
Myth
of Consensus Explodes: APS Opens Global Warming Debate – (Daily Tech
– July 16, 2008) The American Physical Society, an
organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance
on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members
disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also
sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science.
The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global
warming "incontrovertible."
How Will the
Arctic Sea Ice Cover Develop this Summer? – (Phys Org – July 9,
2008) The ice cover in the Arctic Ocean at the end of
summer 2008 will lie, with almost 100% probability, below that of the year
2005 – the year with the second lowest sea ice extent ever measured.
Chances of an equally low value as in the extreme conditions of the year
2007 lie around 8%. Participating with their prognosis in an international
scientific contest, climate scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute
for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association come to this
conclusion in a recent model calculation.
Iceberg
Damage to Seafloor Increases – (Live Science – July 17,
2008) Worms, sea spiders, urchins and other creatures
that dwell on the Antarctic seafloor are pounded daily by icebergs scraping
up their homes. Now scientists say these denizens of the deep take more
hits as global warming diminishes the layer of sea ice that blocks the
icebergs and protects habitats. As newly broken-off icebergs float in
shallower areas, pushed around by winds and tides, their bottoms, which can
sometimes reach to a depth of 1,600 feet (500 meters), scour the seafloor
beneath them.
Penguins
Threatened with Extinction – (Live Science – July 1, 2008) The dwindling march of the penguins is signaling that the
world's oceans are in trouble, scientists now say. Penguins may be the
tuxedo-clad version of a canary in the coal mine, with generally ailing
populations from a combination of global warming, ocean oil pollution,
depleted fisheries, and tourism and development, according to a new
scientific review paper. A University of Washington biologist detailed
specific problems around the world with remote penguin populations, linking
their decline to the overall health of southern oceans.
Farms
in the Sky Gain New Interest – (New York Times – July 15,
2008) What if “eating local” in Shanghai or
New York meant getting your fresh produce from five blocks away? And what
if skyscrapers grew off the grid, as verdant, self-sustaining towers where
city slickers cultivated their own food? The "vertical farm," a 30-story
skyscraper growing hydroponic vegetables, could feed 50,000 people in a
city (at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars), proposes Dickson
Despommier, a professor of public health at Columbia University.
Amazon
Outflow Powers Ocean Capture of Carbon Dioxide – (EurekAlert –
July 22, 2008) Nutrients washed out of the Amazon River
are powering huge amounts of previously unexpected plant life far out to
sea, thus trapping atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study.
Until now, the areas around the Amazon and other great rivers had been
thought to be emitting CO2, so the study may affect climate scientists'
calculations of how the greenhouse gas acts.
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ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS
• Solar Energy: Cost Effective Devices
Expected Soon • First U.S.
Town Powered Completely by Wind •
Energy from Waves •
Chemical Breakthrough Turns Sawdust into Biofuel • GM Partners with Utilities to
Advance Plug-in Hybrids
Solar Energy: Cost
Effective Devices Expected Soon – (Phys Org – July 10,
2008) Organic solar concentrators collect and focus
different colors of sunlight. Solar cells can be attached to the edges of
the plates. By collecting light over their full surface and concentrating
it at their edges, these devices reduce the required area of solar cells
and consequently, the cost of solar power. Stacking multiple concentrators
allows the optimization of solar cells at each wavelength, increasing the
overall power output.
First
U.S. Town Powered Completely by Wind – (Live Science – July 15,
2008) Rock Port, Missouri has an unusual crop: wind
turbines. The four turbines that supply electricity to the small town of
1,300 residents make it the first community in the United States to operate
solely on wind power. Northwest Missouri has the state's highest
concentrations of wind resources and contains a number of locations that
are potentially suitable for utility-scale wind development. The four
turbines that power Rock Port are part of a larger set of 75 turbines
across three counties. The turbines have another benefit besides producing
clean energy: the Missouri wind farms will bring in more than $1.1 million
annually in county real estate taxes.
Energy
from Waves – (Technology Review – July 14, 2008) The ocean's waves have enough energy to provide two trillion
watts of electricity, according to the Department of Energy. Extracting
that enormous resource of power, however, has proved to be a herculean
challenge. A new device being developed by U.K.-based Checkmate SeaEnergy
could help tap a portion of this wave power. The device, aptly named the
Anaconda, is a long, water-filled rubber tube closed at both ends. It
currently exists as a small laboratory-scale model, but it could eventually
be 200 meters long and seven meters in diameter. At such a size, it will be
capable of generating one megawatt of power at about 12 cents a
kilowatt-hour, which is competitive with electricity costs from other
wave-power technologies.
Chemical
Breakthrough Turns Sawdust into Biofuel – (New Scientist – July
18, 2008) A wider of range of plant material could be
turned into biofuels thanks to a breakthrough that converts plant molecules
called lignin, an essential component of wood, into liquid hydrocarbons.
However, lignin is a complex molecule and, with current methods, breaks
down in an unpredictable way into a wide range of products, only some of
which can be used in biofuels. Now Yuan Kou at Peking University in
Beijing, and his team have come up with a lignin breakdown reaction that
more reliably produces the alkanes and alcohols needed for biofuels. The
reaction reliably and efficiently turns the lignin in waste products such
as sawdust into the chemical precursors of ethanol and biodiesel.
GM
Partners with Utilities to Advance Plug-in Hybrids – (C/Net –
July 22, 2008) General Motors is teaming up with 30
utilities in 37 states and with the Electric Power Research Institute to
develop a charging infrastructure for electric cars. They aim to fine-tune
the technology, safety, and customer experience for car-charging stations
by 2010, when the Chevy Volt is due to be produced. Another aim is to
prevent utilities from being overwhelmed during peak hours when the grid is
already challenged. Electric cars can be charged at night when electrical
rates and demand are low, but that's not feasible for drivers either
traveling away from a home outlet or living where a personal plug-in isn't
available.
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
• As Travel Costs Rise, More Meetings
Go Virtual • Quarter of the
Planet to be Online by 2012 •
Speak Up •
First Paper-based Transistors •
Say Goodbye to the Computer Mouse
As
Travel Costs Rise, More Meetings Go Virtual – (New York Times –
July 22, 2008) As travel costs rise and airlines cut
service, companies large and small are rethinking the face-to-face meeting
— and business travel as well. Past predictions that technology could
replace travel have been frequent and premature. The main difference today,
analysts say, is that the technology is finally catching up to its promise.
No single breakthrough explains the progress, but rather a series of
step-by-step advances — and steady investment — in
telecommunications networks, software and computer processing.
Videoconferencing technology, known as telepresence, can now deliver an
experience so lifelike that “10 minutes into it, you forget you are
not in the room with them.”
Quarter
of the Planet to be Online by 2012 – (IT News – June 26,
2008) According to the report by Jupiter Research, the
total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012,
encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet. The company sees the highest
growth rates in areas such as China, Russia, India and Brazil. Overall, the
number of users online is predicted to grow by 44% in the time period
between 2007 and 2012.
Speak
Up – (Economist – June 25) The war in Iraq
has created a demand for machines that can translate between Arabic and
English. Although some experimental devices have proved unreliable, they
are now improving. The hardware still needs to become more rugged and the
error rates need to fall from one word in six to one in ten. The names of
people and places also remain difficult for the machines to grasp. On the
other hand, one-way translation is easier and can be more reliable. IBM,
for instance, has a program for translating Arabic and Chinese television
broadcasts into English. It is already good enough to find commercial
applications.
First Paper-based
Transistors – (ZD Net – July 22, 2008) Portuguese researchers have created the first paper-based
transistors. To be more precise, they’ve made the first field effect
transistors (FET) with a paper interstrate layer. The research team
fabricated the devices on both sides of the paper sheet such that the paper
acts simultaneously as the electric insulator and as the substrate.
Furthermore, electric characterization of devices showed that the hybrid
FETs’ performance outpace those of amorphous silicon TFTs, and rival
with the actual state of the art of oxide thin film transistors.
Say
Goodbye to the Computer Mouse – (BBC News – July 17, 2008) It's nearly 40 years old but one leading research company
says the days of the computer mouse are numbered. Taking over will be so
called gestural computer mechanisms like touch screens and facial
recognition devices. "The mouse works fine in the desktop environment but
for home entertainment or working on a notebook it's over," declared
analyst Steve Prentice. "You've got Panasonic showing forward facing video
in the home entertainment environment. Instead of using a conventional
remote control you hold up your hand and it recognises you have done that,"
he said.
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TERRORISM, SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF
WARFARE
• Palm Scanning: Better Than
Fingerprints • Oyster Card
Hack to be Published
Palm
Scanning: Better Than Fingerprints – (Live Science – June 30,
2008) Forget fingerprint scanners, which have replaced
password access on some high-end laptops. Forget iris scanners. The future
of biometrics (automated identification using body parts) involves scanning
palms. At least, that's the message from Fujitsu Computer Products of
America, which recently unveiled palm-scanning technology for the U.S.
market that's already in widespread use in Asia.
Oyster
Card Hack to be Published – (BBC News – July 21, 2008) “Oyster cards” are used as payment on
London’s public transportation system. In March, 2008, security
weaknesses in the card were discovered by Prof. Bart Jacobs and colleagues
from Radboud University, in the Netherlands. The weaknesses center on the
chip that sits at the heart of the contactless card system. As well as
being used on 17 million Oyster cards, the Mifare chip is used by about 1bn
smartcards worldwide. Many organizations, including governments, use Mifare
technology as a secure entry system for buildings. Given the many millions
of cards in use, Prof. Jacobs held off publishing details about how the
information on the chips can be copied and used. It told the Dutch
government and NXP about its work to give them time to harden systems
against the attack.
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GLOBAL EPIDEMIC
• Malaria Gene Increases HIV Risk • Ancient Bones Could Yield TB
Clue
Malaria Gene
Increases HIV Risk – (BBC News – July 16, 2008) A gene which apparently evolved to protect people from
malaria increases their vulnerability to HIV infection by 40%, say US and
UK scientists. People of African descent have a variation of the "DARC"
gene which may interfere with their ability to fight HIV in its early
stages. The Cell Host and Microbe study says the gene accounts for millions
of extra HIV cases in sub-Saharan Africa. However, people with the gene
appear to live longer with HIV than others.
Ancient
Bones Could Yield TB Clue – (BBC News – July 16, 2008) Little is known of TB's evolution, but it is believed to
have been prevalent in the early settlements of the Near East many
thousands of years ago. Jericho, located in the present-day West Bank, is
one of the oldest cities in the world, dating back 9,000 years. TB is often
regarded as a disease of crowded areas, so scientists believe the
conditions in the early cities of the "fertile crescent" region would have
been ripe for the spread of infection. Researchers are using human remains
from the ancient city to study the evolution of tuberculosis. The work
could also help medical researchers combat modern forms of the bacterial
disease.
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NANOTECHNOLGY
Invisible
Nanotube Cable Could Support a Human – (New Scientist – July
20, 2008) Being narrower than the wavelength of light,
nanotubes are normally invisible - as long as they are separated by more
than one wavelength. Now Nicola Pugno of the Polytechnic of Turin, Italy,
has calculated how many nanotubes would be needed to support a person,
taking into account small defects that develop in the tubes during
manufacture. When held 5 micrometers apart, to keep them invisible, they
would form a cable only 1 centimeter in diameter weighing a mere 10
milligrams per kilometer. Circus acts and movie special effects may never
be the same again.
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TRENDS OF GOVERNMENT
• Collateral Damage • Comcast Pressured Over Porn
Collateral
Damage – (Washington Post – July 13, 2008) In
The Dark Side, Jane Mayer, a staff writer for the New Yorker,
documents some of the ugliest allegations of wrongdoing charged against the
Bush administration. Her achievement lies in weaving into a comprehensive
narrative a story revealed elsewhere in bits and pieces. Mayer
substantiates her facts in persuasive detail, citing the testimony of
military officers, intelligence professionals, "hard-line law-and-order
stalwarts in the criminal justice system" and impeccably conservative Bush
appointees. In Washington, the concept of the global war on terror
continuing for generations has become widely accepted. The Dark Side allows
us a glimpse of what that achievement signifies.
Comcast
Pressured Over Porn – (Washington Post – July 22, 2008) New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo wants major Internet
providers to agree on steps to remove newsgroups that contain child
pornography and purge their servers of Web sites that contain child porn.
New York has already reached such agreements with AT&T, AOL, Verizon
Communications, Sprint Nextel and Time Warner Cable.
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CONTACT AND THE EXPLORATION OF
SPACE
Manned
Spaceship Design Unveiled – (BBC News – July 22, 2008) The first official image of a Russian-European manned
spacecraft has been unveiled. It is designed to replace the Soyuz vehicle
currently in use by Russia and will allow Europe to participate directly in
crew transportation. The reusable ship was conceived to carry four people
towards the Moon, rivaling the US Ares/Orion system.
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Bhutan
King to be Crowned at Last – (BBC News – July 23, 2008) The transition from Bhutan’s monarchy to democracy has
been deliberately designed to be slow and steady and the monarchy will
continue to play a central role in Bhutanese life. Both the new government
and the opposition say they are committed to the king's own five-year plan,
and to the royal philosophy of Gross National Happiness - or GNH - which
aims to strike a better balance between the spiritual and the material. A
date has been announced in the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan for the long
awaited coronation of King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck. who took over
after his father abdicated in 2006 as part of a move towards a
constitutional monarchy. “Gross National Happiness”?
Bhutan’s monarchs have been remarkably forward-looking for decades.
What would the global economy look like if that economic metric were more
widely embraced?
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JUST FOR FUN
Architectural
Monuments in a Reshaped Beijing – (New York Times – July 10,
2008) Get ready for the Olympics. Explore five new,
notable architectural projects in Beijing. These buildings are
audacious and beautiful, not to mention: very large. The new airport
terminal is two miles across and would reach all the way across lower
Manhattan.
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A FINAL QUOTE...
I like the dreams of the future better than the
history of the past. -Thomas Jefferson
A special thanks to:, Erik Beaumont, Philip Bogdonoff, Tom Burgin,
Bernard Calil, Ken Dabkowski, Walter Derzko, Neil Freer, Ursula Freer,
KurzweilAI, Oliver Markley, Planet 2025, Sebastian McCallister, Diane C.
Petersen, John C..Petersen, Planet 2025, the Schwartzreport, Joel Snell,
Gary Sycalik, and Steve Ujvarosy, our contributors to this issue.
If you see something we should know about, do send it along - thanks. johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org
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