Pragmatically, it is impossible to deny the existence of peak oil, because logically any time there is a finite resource that is being used too quickly, it will eventually run out. Regardless of whether or not you are talking to an Exxon Mobile executive, a radical environmentalist, or a Saudi royal family representative, on a basic level they have to acknowledge this fact. However, the key distinction regarding whether or not anything is to be done about peak oil comes down to a basic question: should we care?

Many that I have talked to answer this question with a resounding NO, by stating that when oil peaks and prices skyrocket to extreme levels (which clearly will happen at some point), people's natural ingenuity and the free market will come up with alternatives and society will keep going without much change. On the surface, this appears to be logical, particularly for someone who believes in the innovative spirit of human beings as much as I do. However, this viewpoint misses what I consider to the single most important (and most commonly misunderstood) concept surrounding peak oil: the transition time.

Most estimates purport that it will take 20 years for the necessary innovation, research, development, and infrastructure implementation to switch society off of fossil fuel usage. Furthermore, this is assuming the things like political decisions and social norms are leading the way and driving this innovation and change, which clearly is not the reality at the moment. I cannot think of any sane person who would willingly sacrifice 20 years of socioeconomic turmoil on a global scale (which the transition period will clearly be if initiated too late) when it could be avoided. However, this would have meant that we would have started the transition sometime in the mid 1980’s (as opposed to the supply side permeated Reagan-Bush years). In many ways, we have dropped the ball for 20 years, and we are increasingly accelerating toward a brick wall that is the transition from fossil fuels to alternatives.

We cannot go back in time and change our energy policy decisions no matter how much we want to (can you imagine our Middle Eastern foreign policy decision possibly going a little different). Instead, all we can do is get our political viewpoints and social norms pointed in the correct direction, and finally start the transition we should have started 20 years ago. All we can hope for is that we are starting early enough to avoid catastrophe...